CZECHIA: Michl Not Too Bothered By Tariffs, Deems Gov't Spending More Important

• RES 4: 93.79 High Mar 4     
• RES 3: 93.01 High Mar 20        
• RES 2: 92.55 Trendline resistance drawn from the Apr 4 high
• RES 1: 92.17 50.0% retracement of the Mar 4 - 27 bear cycle                       
• PRICE: 92.07 @ 08:10 BST Mar 31
• SUP 1: 91.85 Intraday low                                      
• SUP 2: 91.03 Low Mar 28  
• SUP 3: 90.55 Low Mar 27  
• SUP 4: 90.49 1.618 proj of the Feb 6 - 20 - Mar 4 price swing

The short-term trend outlook in Gilt futures remains bearish, however, today’s gap higher highlights a bullish start to this week’s trading session, and signals scope for a stronger recovery near-term. An extension would open 92.55, a trendline resistance drawn from the Apr 4 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen the short-term bull cycle. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 90.71, the Mar 6 low.

Fresh lows for Euro Stoxx 50 futures after the cash open, with the contract briefly piercing round number support at 5,200.00.

• Tariff worry ahead of “Liberation Day” (Wednesday) the key driver of early risk-off price action seen across global markets this week.
• Background negatives include Israel’s IDF signaling an “intense fight” in Rafah.

• 3 RFGB auctions for E1.0-1.5bln each on 15 April, 20 May and 10 June.
• "The net borrowing requirement is estimated at EUR 12.289 billion, resulting in a gross borrowing amount of EUR 41.744 billion. Approximately EUR 24.3 billion of this amount is expected to be covered with long-term debt, and the rest (17.4 billion) with short-term debt."
• Finland has confirmed they are "planning to issue a second new euro benchmark bond of the year, likely in a 10-year maturity" - we had pencilled in an April (or potentially May) E4bln launch for a new 10-year Sep-35 RFGB in our Eurozone Issuance Deep Dive.
• 2 ORI operations in Q2 for E0-400mln each on 3 April and 26 June. For Q3/4, ORIs scheduled for 28 August, 30 October, and 27 November, all E0-400mln.
• "As in previous years, bonds may be issued under the EMTN programme to complement the funding in euro benchmark bonds during the year, market conditions permitting."
• 3 RFTB auctions are planned for E1-2bln each on 8 April, 13 May, and 3 June.
• "In addition to Treasury bill auctions, a tap issuance window may open during the second quarter of the year."
• "The next Quarterly Review will be published on 27 June 2025."