EU FINANCIALS: Mediobanca: Q4 25 Results               

• RES 4: 0.8694 High Apr 14   
• RES 3: 0.8648 76.4% retracement of the Apr 11 - May 29 downleg
• RES 2: 0.8624 High Apr 21 
• RES 1: 0.8592 61.8% retracement of the Apr 11 - May 29 downleg
• PRICE: 0.8574 @ 06:54 BST Jul 1
• SUP 1: 0.8514/8482 20- and 50-day EMA values 
• SUP 2: 0.8459 Low Jun 11 
• SUP 3: 0.8407 Low Jun 4 
• SUP 4: 0.8356 Low May 29 and the bear trigger 

The trend condition in EURGBP remains bullish and Monday’s strong start to the week reinforces current conditions. Moving average studies have recently crossed and are currently in a bull-mode position - highlighting a dominant uptrend. Scope is seen for a test of 0.8592 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, support to watch lies at 0.8482, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level would highlight a possible reversal.

Germany, Spain and France look to hold conventional auctions this week, Belgium is scheduled to hold an ORI auction while Italy is scheduled to hold a buyback. We pencil in estimated gross issuance for the week of E24.6bln, down from E31.2bln last week.

For the full MNI EGB Supply Daily publication with a look ahead to the next two weeks of issuance and a recap of Q3 issuance plans, click here.

• Germany will kick off issuance for the quarter tomorrow with a E6bln auction to launch the new 10-year Aug-35 Bund ISIN (DE000BU2Z056). Note that the size of this auction was increased by E1bln from E5bln in the Q3 calendar update. The E6bln auction size is the largest for a non-Schatz German auction since 2011 (and the largest of any German auction since September 2023). This is also the only E6bln German auction scheduled for Q3. The coupon will be announced this morning.
• On Wednesday, Italy has announced it will hold a buyback for up to E5bln via the Banca d’Italia. The MEF will look to buyback the following: the 3.10% Aug-26 BTP Short Term (ISIN: IT0005607269), the 3.80% Apr-26 BTP (ISIN: IT0005538597), the 1.60% Jun-26 BTP (ISIN: IT0005170839), the 1.25% Dec-26 BTP (ISIN: IT0005210650) and the Apr-26 CCTeu (ISIN: IT0005428617).
  • Note that this is in addition to the E16.4bln redemption of the formerly 5-year BTP that was due on 1 July.

• RES 4: 107.690 High Apr 30 
• RES 3: 107.610 High May 23 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 107.430/475 High Jun 13 / High May 27
• RES 1: 107.335 High Jun 26 
• PRICE: 107.260 @ 06:21 BST Jul 1
• SUP 1: 107.195/180 Low Jun 6 / 23    
• SUP 2: 107.125 Low May 12 and a key support
• SUP 3: 107.000 Round number support 
• SUP 4: 106.890 2.000 proj of the May 23 - 29 - 30 price swing

Schatz futures traded lower Friday but for now, the contract remains inside a range and price is trading below the Jun 13 high. Support to watch is 107.195, the Jun 6 low. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would reinstate a bearish threat and signal scope for an extension towards 107.125, the May 12 low. On the upside, clearance of 107.470, the May 30 high, is required to strengthen a bullish condition. Initial firm resistance is 107.430, Jun 13 high.