AMERICAS OIL: Maxed-Out Colonial Gasoline Pipeline Looks to Boost Capacity: BBG

Mar-04 20:28

Maxed-Out Colonial Gasoline Pipeline Looks to Boost Capacity: Bloomberg

  • Colonial Pipeline is proposing changes to increase capacity by 20,000 b/d by no longer transporting overlapping batches of gasoline and stopping transportation of grade five gasoline.
  • The proposed changes would allow the pipeline to transport an additional 15,000 to 20,000 b/d of gasoline, on top of the current 2.5 mb/d transported currently.
  • If approved, the changes would likely come into effect in September, following a window for shippers to file concerns with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.
  • The company would also stop transporting grade five gasoline — a higher volatility fuel used in the northeast — and modify how it tests fuel quality at the start of the 5,500-mile pipeline in Houston.
  • “Based on the demand that we are seeing, we fully expect that we would remain full on line 1,” Wolfe said, referring to the main gasoline-transporting conduit of the system.
  • The pipeline is the primary means of meeting fuel demand on the East Coast, where multiple refineries have closed in recent years, making the region increasingly reliant on imports. The line is closely watched by fuel suppliers and traders because operational issues can have an outsized effect on US fuel demand, prices and inventories.
  • Shippers on the pipeline have a window to file any concerns with FERC, after which the regulator will decide whether to approve Colonial’s proposed changes. If approved, the changes would likely come into effect in September.

Historical bullets

CANADA STILL CONSIDERING TAX ON OIL EXPORTS TO US- OFFICIAL

Feb-02 18:26
  • CANADA STILL CONSIDERING TAX ON OIL EXPORTS TO US- OFFICIAL

FED: Powell To Deliver Semi-Annual Testimony In Mid-Feb

Jan-31 21:48

The House Financial Services Committee's website confirms that Fed Chair Powell will deliver his semi-annual Monetary Policy Report on Wednesday Feb 12 at 1000ET.

  • The Semi-annual testimony will be closely eyed as Powell's first scheduled appearance since the January FOMC - and the House testimony on the 12th is the same day as the release of January CPI (and the week after nonfarm payrolls and benchmark revisions) so will be of particular interest.

US OUTLOOK/OPINION: Nonfarm Payrolls, Revisions Highlight Next Week In US Macro

Jan-31 21:39

Friday’s nonfarm payrolls for January highlights the US macro week. It's a highly anticipated report that could alter recent trends considering it will include annual benchmark revisions along with seasonal factors and an updated birth-death model. 

  • The preliminary estimate for the benchmark revision pointed to the level of payrolls being some 818k lower than currently reported for back in March 2024. There’s a broad expectation from what we can gather that the hit seen next week won’t be as large but it could still be significant. We also watch the seasonal revisions closely, as whilst they should have a zero-sum impact over the calendar year, we’ve noted some particularly favorable seasonal factors in recent months that have biased seasonally adjusted jobs growth higher.
  • With these considerations in mind, the early days of the Bloomberg consensus points to nonfarm payrolls growth of 150k after a solid three-month average of 170k. Note that the unemployment rate from the separate household survey won’t be affected by these revisions, having already seen its own seasonal factor revisions last month. A population control will complicate month-on-month changes in the levels of employment and unemployment but shouldn’t be significant for the rate, which is seen unchanged at 4.1% having surprised lower with 4.09% in December. The recent high is technically 4.23% in November having first popped to 4.22% back in July.
  • Two other special mentions for the week are: 1) rare remarks from FOMC Vice Chair Jefferson speaking on the economic outlook and monetary policy late on Tuesday with both text and Q&A, having last spoke on Oct 9. 2) ISM services on Wednesday after its priced paid series jumped 5.9pts to 64.4 in December for the highest since Feb 2023.
  • Away from macro but still material, the coming week brings the US Treasury's quarterly refunding process - our preview is here.