JGB TECHS: (M5) Off Highs, But Underlying Strength Persists

• RES 3: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)
• RES 2: 146.53 - High Aug 6
• RES 1: 138.54 - High Mar 31
• PRICE: 137.48 @ 15:41 GMT Apr 01
• SUP 1: 136.67 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 2: 136.57 - 1.382 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 20 - Feb 26 bear leg  
• SUP 3: 134.89 - 2.000 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 20 - Feb 26 bear leg

JGBs are undergoing a strong bullish reversal, rejected any test of fresh cycle lows for the M5 contract. This defies the bearish momentum studies drawn on the longer-term chart, exposing the 50-dma at 139.01 as a near-term target. To the downside, sights are on 136.57, a Fibonacci projection. 144.48 is the medium-term target on any recovery.

Early G10 FX moves are seeing some risk-on tones, with higher US equity futures likely helping such trends. Tariff related headlines may be helping sentiment at the margins.

•  A CNBC reporter posted on X, citing Republican Rep. Kevin Hern, that the tariff rates announced Wednesday will be the highest they will go and countries can then take steps to bring the tariffs down. This followed a meeting with US Tsy Secretary Bessent.
• The WSJ also noted earlier the USTR is preparing another tariff option for Trump: ""The U.S. Trade Representative's office is preparing a third option of across-the-board tariff on a subset of nations that likely would not be as high as the 20% universal tariff option, according to people with knowledge of the plans."
• There was also a Washington Post article around the use of tariff revenue to support the economy, including options for a tax dividend or refund, but these plans are reportedly only in the very early stages.  
• Eminis have moved up +0.15% since re-opening, although we are away from best levels. This follows a cash gain in Wednesday trade of nearly 0.40% for the SPX.
• USD/JPY has ticked up to 149.75/80. Session highs rest at 149.89. NZD/USD is close to 0.5710, while AUD/USD is up a touch to 0.6285. NZD/JPY is back above 85.50, AUD/JPY is back above 94.10. 

TYM5 is 111-16, -0-08+ from closing levels in today's Asia-Pac session. 

• Overnight, a decent NY session for US tsys ahead of Liberation (tariff) Day announcements. Accounts squared positions ahead of Wednesday afternoon's announcement from the White House (1600ET est).
• There was early FI support after lower-than-expected JOLTS job openings, quits and layoffs higher than expected. ISMs mixed with Mfg, new orders and employment lower than expected while prices paid jumped.
• Washington Post reports that "White House aides have drafted a proposal to impose tariffs of around 20 percent on at least most imports to the United States, three people familiar with the matter said".
• A short while ago, the WSJ published headlines about a potential new tariff option being prepared by the USTR for Trump.
• Also, a CNBC reporter posted on X, citing Republican Rep. Kevin Hern, that the tariff rates announced Wednesday will be the highest they will go and countries can then take steps to bring the tariffs down.
• Moreover, the president’s team is exploring using trillions of dollars in new import revenue for a tax dividend or refund, people familiar with the matter said." WAPO.