GILT TECHS: (M5) Clears Key Resistance
- RES 4: 95.57 High Dec 11 ‘24 (cont)
- RES 3: 95.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 94.75 76.4% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 13 bear leg (cont)
- RES 1: 94.42 Intraday high
- PRICE: 94.17 @ 12:19 BST Apr 4
- SUP 1: 93.01 High Mar 20
- SUP 2: 91.97 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 91.59 Low Mar 31
- SUP 4: 91.03 Low mar 28
Gilt futures maintain a firmer tone and today’s gap higher reinforces current bullish conditions. A key resistance at 93.79, the Mar 4 high, has been cleared and this has been followed by a move through the 94.00 handle. The breach signals scope for a climb towards 94.75, 76.4% of the Dec 3 - Jan 13 bear leg (cont). On the downside, initial support lies at 93.01, the Mar 20 high. A firmer support is seen at 91.97, the 20-day EMA.
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NORWAY: Another Strong Month For Existing Home Prices
Norwegian existing home prices were much stronger than Norges Bank expectations for the third consecutive month in February. The 0.9% M/M SA print (vs 0.4% Norges Bank exp) means existing home prices have risen 2.7% on a 3m/3m basis (vs 2.0% prior). That’s the strongest 3m/3m rate since February 2021. This development shouldn’t stand in the way of a 25bp Norges Bank cut on March 27, but will have a hawkish impact on the updated rate path projection all else equal.
- The Eiendom Norge CEO noted that “the strong development is probably due to the fact that a pent-up housing and moving demand built up during the high-priced period”.
- Low supply of new built homes since the pandemic (partially a function of high policy rates) has shifted demand towards existing homes, and continues to be a key driver of existing home prices.
EGB OPTIONS: Bund put fly
RXJ5 128/126/125p fly 1x3x2, bought for 22 in 1.5k.
EGB OPTIONS: Expiries for Mar05 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)
- EUR/USD: $1.0300-20(E1.7bln), $1.0325-35(E1.1bln), $1.0430-50(E1.3bln), $1.0500-05(E746mln)
- USD/JPY: Y147.90-00($702mln), Y148.50($505mln), Y149.00($720mln), Y151.00-10($1.0bln), Y151.85-00($1.0bln)
- EUR/JPY: Y161.75(E1.2bln)
- GBP/USD: $1.2500-20(Gbp1.1bln)
- AUD/USD: $0.6350(A$1.3bln)
- USD/CAD: C$1.4475-80(C$1.2bln), $1.4495-00($1.9bln), C$1.4560($636mln)
- USD/CNY: Cny7.3265($600mln)
