BOBL TECHS: (M5) Bullish Outlook

RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed 1-5bps firmer across meetings, with Feb-26 leading. 

• 27bps of easing is priced for tomorrow, with a cumulative 98bps by November 2025.
• Relative to February’s pre-RBNZ levels, pricing is flat to 33bps softer led by late 2025 meetings.

Figure 1: RBNZ Dated OIS Today vs. February’s Pre-RBNZ (%)

Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg

• RES 4: 120.000 Psychological round number          
• RES 3: 119.960 High Apr 7          
• RES 2: 119.594 76.4% retracement of Monday’s high-low range  
• RES 1: 119.185 50.0% retracement of Monday’s high-low range                                    
• PRICE: 119.360 @ 06:14 BST Apr 7  
• SUP 1: 118.410/117.895 Low Apr 7 / 20-day EMA       
• SUP 2: 117.410 Low Mar 27    
• SUP 3: 117.600 Low Mar 28 
• SUP 4: 117.080 Low Mar 25 and a ey short-term support    

Bobl futures have pulled back from their recent highs and yesterday, the contract traded in a volatile manner. Last week’s gains resulted in a break of key resistance at 119.040, the Feb 28 high. This strengthens bullish conditions and signals scope for a continuation. The focus is on the 120.000 handle next. The contract is overbought, a deeper pullback would allow this condition to unwind. Initial firm support lies at 117.895, the 20-day EMA.

Oil prices are higher today as risk-sensitive assets rally following sharp falls since the US announced higher-than-expected tariffs. WTI trended up through today’s APAC session and is +1.4% to $61.55/bbl after a high of $61.75. Brent is 1.4% stronger at $65.09, close to the intraday high and off the low of $64.45. The softer USD is also likely providing some support to dollar-denominated oil (USD index -0.4%).

• Today has seen a relief rally but concerns over the impact of a trade war on global oil demand are never far away. Markets appear to have paused due to a mix of selling fatigue and watching & waiting to see the results of imminent negotiations between the US and numerous regions, including EU, ASEAN and Japan. A lack of compromise though would likely send oil prices lower again.
• The US has threatened China with a further 50% tariff if it retaliates. China said today that it prefers to negotiate but will “fight to the end”. China is the world’s largest importer of crude and is likely to switch any flows from the US to other suppliers.
• While lower fuel prices may help US consumers, they are unlikely to encourage further drilling with the Dallas Fed estimating that average WTI needs to be $65 to make new wells profitable (Bloomberg).
• The EIA’s short-term energy monthly outlook will now be published on April 10, a delay from April 8. It said that it is “re-running” models to include the latest developments, according to Bloomberg.
• Today US industry-based inventory data is released. Also the Fed’s Daly, BoE’s Lombardelli and ECB’s Cipollone & de Guindos speak. US March NFIB small business optimism and Canada’s March Ivey PMI print.