REFINING: Lukoil Plans to Restart Unit At Nizhny Novgorod Refinery in Q2
Apr-10 12:05
Lukoil plans to recommission the AVT-6 catalytic cracking units at the Nizhny Novgorod refinery in Q2, once spring maintenance has concluded, a Lukoil source told Interfax.
- Last week, Kommersant reported that the unit was planned to be restarted end of March.
- Lukoil’s damaged NORSI refinery in Russia expects to have its CDU-6 primary unit and catalytic cracker back in operation in Q2 following maintenance a source told Reuters.
- Capacity at the AVT-5 crude de-salter unit the Volgograd refinery was restored on 21 February, the source said.
- The AVT-4 has already been restarted at the Ryazan oil refinery. The launch of AVT-6 was expected on April 3, according to Kommersant, however, this has not been confirmed yet.
- The Kuibyshev Refinery will be recommissioned at around 8 May, while the AVT-6 of the Syzran Refinery may require the longest repair with the expected commissioning date around 14 June. The refiner is also trying to recommission the idled AVT-5 unit that has been offline since last summer according to Kommersant.
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Channel Breakout In Bunds Strengthens The Bullish Theme
Mar-11 11:44
- In the FI space, Bund futures traded higher last week and in the process confirmed a clear break of resistance at the 50-day EMA - at 133.28. The clear break signals scope for an extension and opens 134.18 next the Feb 15 high. Note that the break higher has also resulted in a bear channel breakout - drawn from the Dec 27 high. Clearance of 134.18 would open 134.78, 50.0% of the Dec 27 - Feb 29 bear cycle. On the downside, the bear trigger lies at 131.23 the Feb 29 low. First support is 132.36, the Mar 5 low.
- Gilt futures traded higher last week, extending the recovery from the Feb 29 low. Resistance at 98.53, the Feb 26 high, has recently been cleared. The break eases recent bearish pressure and instead signals scope for a continuation higher near-term. 99.00 has also been cleared and sights are on 100.12 next, the 1.382 projection of the Feb 29 - Mar 1 - 4 price swing. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 96.83, Feb 29 low. Initial support is at 98.33, the Mar 5 low.
US TSYS: What to Watch: Lead-Up to CPI/PPI, Coupon Auctions
Mar-11 11:41
- Cash Treasuries holding narrow overnight range, futures leading gains in the long end amid lighter volumes (TYM4 under 250k), curves unwinding a portion of Friday's steepening (2s10s -1.485 at -41.760).
- No data today, focus on Tuesday's CPI inflation data, PPI and Retail sales on Thursday.
- No Fed speakers, entered blackout late Friday and will remain so until March 21.
- Treasury auctions kick off the week with $79B 13W, $70B 26W bills at 1130ET, $56B 3Y note (91282CKE0) at 1300ET.
- Politics: Punchbowl News notes the "Senate Intelligence Committee has an open hearing on worldwide threats. The House Rules Committee will meet to prepare several measures for floor consideration."
US TSYS: Goldman Sachs: Softer Payroll Details Reaffirm Case For Rangebound Yields
Mar-11 11:39
Goldman Sachs write “even after last week’s yield declines, our positioning indicators continue to show bearish positioning on net, albeit at less extreme levels than a couple of weeks ago.”
- “From here we expect yields to remain rangebound ahead of CPI and the March FOMC meeting.”
- “Whilst an upside surprise in CPI may revive concerns around sticky inflation, some of this right tail risk has already been tempered by the softer jobs report and alternative labor market indicators.”
- “And if inflation does show clear signs of deceleration as we expect (in both CPI and PPI terms), this should solidify market expectations of a Q2 cut and potentially raise the odds of the left tail being priced back in.”
