TARIFFS: Little Concrete Progress Evident In Major Deals; Bessent Speaks Weds
Fox's @CGasparino on X.com has an account of Tsy Sec Bessent's comments on a China trade deal that sound closer to the Reuters version of events ("a slog" to get a deal) moreso than Bloomberg's (which reported that he expected the situation to de-escalate):
- "BREAKING: Ive been told by a person close to @SecScottBessent the reports on his remarks about a trade deal with China have being imminent overstate what he said. He meant that there is room for talks and de-escalation but much also depends on China's willingness to compromise on trade as well."
- Gasparino follows this up by reporting that "Bessent & Co scrambling to reach deals with India, South Korea, Japan, Australia; deals said not to be imminent". Recall that Gasparino reported Monday that "Japanese negotiators are complaining that the problem with the trade negotiations with the White House, what's delaying concrete progress and a real deal, is that US keeps changing its ask in terms of exactly what it wants, said one financial CEO who speaks regularly to country officials."
- In short, while the White House's official stance is that "We're doing very well with respect to a potential trade deal with China" and "18 proposals" from various trading partners being reviewed (per WH Press Secretary Leavitt today), there is little evidence of any concrete progress on major trade deals.
- An additional item on the agenda worth noting for any insight on this and other fronts: Bessent says on X.com that he will be sharing his "thoughts on the state of the global financial system" at an IIF event at 10ET Wednesday.
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CANADA PM CARNEY TO MEET GOVERNOR GENERAL AT NOON
- CANADA PM CARNEY TO MEET GOVERNOR GENERAL AT NOON
- CARNEY EXPECTED TO SEEK ELECTION
US TSYS: Available "Extraordinary Measures" Pick Up Slightly From Lows
Treasury has $163B of "extraordinary measures" remaining for authorities to use to fend off hitting the debt limit as of March 19, per the latest release of Treasury data. That's up from $86B on Mar 17 and a low of $34B on Feb 24.
- That's a little under half of the $377B in measures available to Treasury, with most of the amount remaining ($143B) coming from the so-called "G Fund".
- This headroom is in addition to $416B in cash left in the TGA, at last count.
- We haven't seen any changes recently to "x-dates" by when Treasury will run out of cash until the debt limit is lifted.
- Consensus still centers around late July/early August, but much will depend on April's major mid-month tax take. Treasury wrote to Congress last week that they would be able to provide an update on the x-date in the first half of May, after the conclusion of tax season.
USDCAD TECHS: Short-Term Outlook Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 1.4793 High Feb 3 and key resistance
- RES 3: 1.4700 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.4641 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.4452/4543 High Mar 13 / 4 and a bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.4345 @ 16:27 GMT Mar 21
- SUP 1: 1.4242 Low Mar 6 and a key near-term support
- SUP 2: 1.4151/4107 Low Feb 14 / 50.0% of Sep 25 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
- SUP 4: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle
USDCAD is trading closer to its recent lows. The bull cycle that started Feb 14 remains intact and moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Note that the latest pullback has exposed a near-term key support at 1.4242, the Mar 6 low. Clearance of this level would undermine the bull theme and instead highlight potential for a test of 1.4151, the Feb 14 low and a bear trigger. The bull trigger is 1.4543, the Mar 4 high.
