CAPITAL GOODS: Legrand (LRFP NR/A-/NR): 1Q25 Results Headlines

• RES 4: 0.8628 1.500 proj of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing      
• RES 3: 0.8604 1.382 proj of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing  
• RES 2: 0.8593 High Aug 14 ‘24
• RES 1: 0.8533 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 0.8525 @ 07:01 BST Apr 7 
• SUP 1: 0.8432/0.8380 Low Apr 4 / 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 0.8299 Low Mar 5   
• SUP 4: 0.8251 Low Mar 4

EURGBP maintains a bullish tone. The latest rally has resulted in a break of key resistance at 0.8474, the Jan 20 high. Clearance of this hurdle highlights an important technical breach and strengthens a bullish condition. Sights are 0.8593 next, the Aug 14 ‘24 high. On the downside, firm support lies at 0.8380, the 20-day EMA. The contract is overbought, a pullback would allow this condition to unwind.

• RES 4: 107.835 2.000 retracement proj of the Mar 4 - 6 bear leg     
• RES 3: 107.666 1.764 retracement proj of the Mar 4 - 6 bear leg   
• RES 2: 107.600 Round number resistance  
• RES 1: 107.575 Intraday high                  
• PRICE: 107.550 @ 06:37 BST Apr 7     
• SUP 1: 107.470 Intraday low    
• SUP 2: 107.150 Low Apr 4     
• SUP 3: 106.913 20-day EMA     
• SUP 4: 106.830 Low Mar 27     

Schatz futures maintain a firmer tone and today’s fresh cycle high once again, reinforces a bullish theme. The contract has recently traded through a key resistance at 107.120, the Mar 4 high. This confirmed a full reversal of the Apr 3 - 6 impulsive sell-off. The break also highlights a stronger bull cycle and signals scope for a climb towards 107.600 next. Initial firm support is seen at 106.913, the 20-day EMA.

• Portugal will hold an OT auction on Wednesday to sell E1.0-1.25bln of the 3.875% Feb-30 OT (ISIN: PTOTEROE0014) and the 4.10% Apr-37 OT (ISIN: PTOTE5OE0007).
• Thursday will see Spain come to the market, holding its second April auction a little earlier than usual due to the timing of Easter. On offer will be the 3.50% May-29 Bono (ISIN: ES0000012M51), the 2.55% Oct-32 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012K61) and the on-the-run 3.15% Apr-35 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012O67). The size of the auction will be announced later today.
• Italy will look to conclude the week on Friday with a 3/7/15+ year BTP auction. As we note in the PDF, we think that there is a chance that Italy holds a syndication to launch the new 7-year BTP (maturing 15 July 2032) as part of a dual-tranche syndication. If this is the case, we would expect to see the 7-year portion of this auction cancelled, if not we look for around E4bln of the new issue to be sold. We also look for a reopening of the 3-year 2.65% Jun-28 BTP (ISIN: IT0005641029) which was launched in March. We don’t have a strong view regarding the 15-50-year BTP that will be on offer alongside these issues. Details of the auction will be announced tomorrow.

NOMINAL FLOWS: The week ahead sees a single redemption of E23.0bln from a German Bobl. Coupon payments for the week total E0.5bln of which E0.4bln are from EFSF bonds. This leaves estimated net flows for the week at positive E10.7bln, vs E27.5bln last week.