JAPAN: LDP Members Ballot Closed As Lawmakers Vote Looms (1/2)
Oct-03 09:51
Voting among grassroots members in the presidential election for the governing Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) closed earlier on 3 October, ahead of the ballot among lawmakers on 4 October. Each of the 295 eligible LDP lawmakers will receive a vote, while the ballots of the 915k party members will be proportionally weighted into 295 votes. To win in the first round, one candidate requires 296 votes.
- It is viewed as unlikely that a single candidate will achieve this level of support, meaning an immediate run-off then takes place between the two highest-scoring candidates. In the run-off, the 295 LDP lawmakers each receive one vote, as do each of the 47 prefectural chapters of the LDP, meaning a total of 342 votes can be cast. Presuming all lawmakers and prefectures cast a ballot, 172 would be the number to secure victory.
- If the procedure of the 2025 contest mirrors that in 2024, counting of votes in the first round should get underway ~13:00JST (00:00ET, 05:00BST). If there is no first-round winner, the run-off will start immediately afterwards, with a result then likely in the mid-to-late afternoon.
- Betting markets continue to view Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Minister Shinjiro Koizumi as the strong favourite, with Polymarket assigning the 44-year-old an 83% implied probability of winning. Opinion polls among LDP members have shown Koizumi and former Minister of State for Economic Security Sanae Takaichi (64) as the frontrunners, with Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi in third.
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BONDS: Firmer As Oil Falls On OPEC+ Report & German Supply Passes Smoothly
Sep-03 09:49
Delayed reaction to the move lower in crude oil as bonds firm a little. Smooth passage of German 10-Year supply also noted.
- WTI & Brent lost a little over $0.80 apiece after RTRS sources noted that “OPEC+ will consider further raising oil production at a meeting on Sunday, as the group seeks to regain market share. Another boost would mean that OPEC+, which pumps about half of the world's oil, would be starting to unwind a second layer of output cuts of about 1.65 million barrels per day, or 1.6% of world demand, more than a year ahead of schedule”.
FOREX: AUDNZD at Fresh Cycle Highs, Eyes Medium-Term Resistance
Sep-03 09:48
- The latest comments from RBA’s Bullock on the current trend of spending potentially needing fewer rate cuts are underpinning some modest AUD strength today, which continues to be most notable against its antipodean counterpart. AUDNZD is back to the overnight session highs, and the highest level in six months.
- Initial strength for the cross during the APAC session followed a solid Q2 GDP reading in Australia. Data was stronger than both the RBA and consensus expected as it rebounded from Q1’s weather-impacted soft result and benefited from holidays. It rose 0.6% q/q to be up 1.8% y/y, the strongest since Q3 2023.
- The other leg of the trade has been fuelled by a dovish RBNZ, prompting AUDNZD to surge higher in recent weeks, breaking back above 1.1000 convincingly, and a breach of the key 1.1180 mark would place the cross at the highest level since late 2022. Above here, 1.1250 marks a significant 76.4% retracement point of the 2022 selloff.
- It is worth noting that S&P made comments on New Zealand overnight, stating they are “comfortable” with NZ’s sovereign rating outlook, though it’s closely watching the nation’s current account and budget deficits.
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
OPTIONS: Expiries for Sep03 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)
Sep-03 09:43
- EUR/USD: $1.1455(E2.2bln), $1.1525(E919mln), $1.1575-95(E1.5bln), $1.1600(E825mln), $1.1645-50(E792mln), $1.1675-80(E1.1bln), $1.1700(E1.1bln)
- USD/JPY: Y145.00($865mln), Y145.50($976mln), Y146.50($1.4bln), Y147.15-30($1.6bln), Y148.00($595mln), Y149.00($508mln)
- GBP/USD: $1.3500(Gbp507mln)
- AUD/USD: $0.6475(A$570mln)
