Better put volumes on net carried over from overnight trade, fading the carry-over support in underlying futures ahead of tomorrow's key CPI data. Salient trade is Dec'23 SOFR put condor hedging two 25bp rate hikes by year end, while a second account hedged a less hawkish year-end view with Dec'23 SOFR 94.00/94.12/94.25 put flys. On the flipside, Green Dec'23 call spd looking for rate cuts to price into late 2025 futures.
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USDCAD maintains a softer tone and traded to new multi-month lows Friday. The resumption of weakness exposes 1.3302, the Apr 14 lows and a key support. Clearance of this level would strengthen bearish conditions. On the upside, initial firm resistance is at 1.3479, the 20-day EMA. A break of this level is required to ease bearish pressure.
The AUDUSD bull cycle that started on May 31 remains in play and the pair is trading at its recent highs. Resistance at the 50-day EMA has been cleared. The break higher strengthened on the break of 0.6733, 76.4% of the downleg in May. On the downside, a reversal lower is required to refocus attention on 0.6458, the May 31 low. Initial support is seen at 0.6623, the 20-day EMA.