POLAND: Late Poll Confirms Unconvincing Lead Of Liberal Gov't Ally Trzaskowski

Mayor of Warsaw Rafał Trzaskowski (KO) took an unconvincing lead in the first round of Polish presidential election, advancing to the run-off slongside Karol Nawrocki (PiS), with results from more than 99% of polling stations already in. Better-than-expected performance from far-right candidates fielded by parties from outside of the two main political camps 

• A late poll released overnight, the most recent indication of results, suggested that Trzaskowski was in pole position with 31.2%, trailed by Nawrocki (29.7%) by less than the margin of error (+/-2pp). Far-right Confederation's Sławomir Mentzen took third place with 14.5%, while ultranationalist Grzegorz Braun came fourth with 6.3%.
• The results triggered repricing in betting markets, with Polymarket now showing a 60% implied probability of Trzaskowski's win. We think this may be skewed by residual bets and the race might be narrower, and the fact that the cumulative support for right-of-centre candidates was over 50% is a boon for Nawrocki.
• Trzaskowski will now face a difficult balancing act, having to attract the votes of at least some of Mentzen's supporters, while trying not to alienate the supporters of the other centrist and centre-left candidates (Hołownia, Biejat, Zandberg). These three candidates garnered a total of 13.8% of the vote.
• At the same time, Nawrocki has a natural advantage with anti-establishment voters, in being able to make a credible pledge to place significant constraints on the current governing coalition. As mentioned in earlier coverage, the President of Poland an veto legislation, which is relatively difficult to overturn in parliament.
• The expectation-busting result of Mentzen has significant implications going forward. It cements Confederation's status as the third most popular party, placing it in a strong position to be a future coalition-maker. After polling stations closed, Mentzen told his supporters that he will 'help our voters make a decision in the second round.'
• The results are a disappointment to Marshal of the Sejm Szymon Hołownia, who is set to step down within a few months and become rank-and-file MP, honouring a power-sharing agreement with coalition partners. In the election five years ago, Hołownia took the third place, which was a stepping stone for his entry to national politics.
• Trzaskowski and Nawrocki are back on the campaign trail ahead of the run-off scheduled to take place on June 1.