US STOCKS: Late Equity Roundup: Stronger But Off Highs
Stock indexes traded firm late Friday but off midday highs amid two-way position squaring flow, otherwise no obvious headline driver ahead the weekend. SPX emini futures currently +63.25 (1.61%) at 3991 vs. 4034.75H, Dow Industrials +235.79 (0.74%) at 31967.04, Nasdaq +341.9 (3%) at 11714.33.
- Despite the decent rebound S&P eminis remain vulnerable and short-term gains are considered corrective. This week’s continuation lower and fresh cycle lows, reinforces the primary bearish trend condition and signals scope for a continuation lower.
- The next objective is 3843.25, the Mar 25 2021 low (cont). In terms of resistance, the key short-term level is at 4303.50, the Apr 26/28 high. On the flipside, Initial resistance is at 4099.00, the May 9 high.
- Though earning cycle has nearly run it's course, some big names remain for next wk: Home Depot and Walmart early Tuesday, Target early Wed; tech names: Applied Materials and Cisco Wed and Thu respectively.
- SPX leading/lagging sectors: Consumer Discretionary (+3.09%) as autos surge, Energy sector (+3.07%) with rebound in crude, Information Technology trimmed gains but still strong (+2.66%) with semiconductor and hardware makers outpacing software.
- Laggers: Utilities (+0.46%), Consumer Staples and Health Care (+0.69%).
- Dow Industrials Leaders/Laggers: Goldman Sachs (GS) +5.85 at 305.26, Salesforce (CRM) +5.10 at 165.52, American Express (AXP) +4.86 at 158.13 and Visa (V) +4.78 at 198.75. Biopharmas lagging: Amgen (AMGN) -2.74 at 241.98, JNJ -1.45 at 176.42.
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US: Republicans Increasingly Mistrusting Of Government Statistics
A YouGov report has shown that Republicans are significantly more distrusting of government statistics that Democrats.
- The report is the latest data set to illustrate the level of partisan divide in perceptions of government and media. The report also demonstrates the difficulty for Democrats to swing Republican leaning voters ahead of the midterms.
- YouGov: ‘The statistic most likely to be trusted by Republicans is ocean temperatures, followed by civilian casualties by the U.S. military abroad (a statistic that was among the least likely to be trusted by Democrats). Unlike Republicans, Democrats are more likely to trust than to distrust each of the statistics polled.’
Chart 1: Trust in government statistics (YouGov)
USDJPY TECHS: Fresh Cycle Highs Once Again
- RES 4: 128.15 High May 17 2002
- RES 3: 127.71 3.764 proj of the Dec 3 ‘21 - Jan 4 -24 price swing
- RES 2: 127.16 3.618 proj of the Dec 3 ‘21 - Jan 4 -24 price swing
- RES 1: 126.71 3.50 proj of the Dec 3 ‘21 - Jan 4 -24 price swing
- PRICE: 126.65 @ 16:32 BST Apr 13
- SUP 1: 124.77/123.47 Low Apr 12 / Low Apr 6 and 7
- SUP 2: 122.24 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 121.28 Low Mar 31 and a bear trigger
- SUP 4: 120.00 Round number support
USDJPY maintains its firmer tone and has this morning resumed its uptrend and traded to a fresh cycle high. The pair has also cleared the 126.00 handle. The break higher reinforces underlying bullish conditions and signals potential for a continuation of the uptrend near-term. The trend condition is overbought, however, this is not slowing the trend in any way at this stage. Key trend support has been defined at 121.28, the Mar 31 low.
US: MNI Inflation Insight: Inflationary Pressures Ease A Bit
- The March 2022 CPI report saw headline inflation as expected on the month and with a small upside surprise to the year-ago rate but core inflation surprisingly moderated.
- Core goods inflation still showed a notable moderation even when stripping out weak used autos as the rotation towards services continues.
- 10 sellside analysts reviewed in the note were mixed but rate calls were left unchanged, with the path to softer inflation seen being a slow one.
- Today’s core PPI report suggests this might not be the end of high goods price inflation.
