US STOCKS: Late Equities Roundup: New Highs for SPX, Nasdaq

• RES 4: 151.21 High Mar 28
• RES 3: 150.49 High Apr 2 
• RES 2: 149.38 50.0% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
• RES 1: 148.66/149.18 High Jul 21 / High Jul 16 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 148.54 @ 19:42 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: 146.76 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 146.01/145.86 50-day EMA / Low Jul 24
• SUP 3: 145.16 61.8% retracement of the Jul 1 - 16 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 144.21 76.4% retracement of the Jul 1 - 16 bull cycle  

A bull cycle in USDJPY remains in place. Monday’s strong start to the week signals the end of the corrective pullback between Jul 16 - 24. Attention is on key resistance and the bull trigger at 149.18, the Jul 16 high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Pivot support to monitor is 146.01, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of it would instead signal scope for stronger reversal. First support is at 146.76, the 20-day EMA.    

The median expectation for 2025 rate cuts is 25bp, with a range of zero (including BofA, NatWest, and Scotiabank) further easing, to 100bp (UBS).

• Expectations are very much mixed for the timing of the resumption of easing, mostly split between September and December, but a few seeing October and some only next year.
• At least one sees a 50bp cut at a single meeting by year-end (Natixis, December).
• For analysts that have provided both a 2025 and 2026 rate outlook, the range of expectations for total cuts by end-2026 is 75-175bp with a median 112.5bp. Though this doesn’t include a few analysts who see no cuts in 2025 - implying that they see the Fed easing cycle already at an end.
• That said, the most total cuts are seen by Morgan Stanley (175bp, entirely in 2026), followed by Natixis, RBC, and TD (150bp each through end-2026).

This update of our July 25 Fed preview includes analyst expectations - Download Full Report Here

• No analysts expect the Fed to cut rates or adjust balance sheet policy at the July FOMC, per the 32 meeting previews seen by MNI. This is unchanged from the June meeting at which even at that point, no July cut was seen.
• It’s virtually unanimous that there will be two dissents in favor of a cut at this meeting, with Gov Waller widely expected to do so and Gov Bowman also likely (among analysts who expressed an opinion on this).
• Statement changes are expected to be limited, with perhaps some downgrading of the characterization of growth in the first paragraph, and many seeing the language on uncertainty changing (“has diminished but remains elevated” to remove “has diminished but”).
• Powell’s press conference is expected to see extensive questioning about political interference in the Fed, and his own future as Chair.
• In terms of actual policy, Powell is seen conveying a fairly neutral stance on future cuts, with reiteration of the June Dot Plot (50bp of cuts by year-end) seen as a potential dovish outcome.