OPTIONS: Larger FX Option Pipeline
May-15 16:47
- EUR/USD: May17 $1.0800-10(E1.0bln), $1.0850(E1.92bln); May20 $1.0680-00(E1.9bln), $1.0850-55(E1.2bln); May21 $1.0840-45(E1.3bln)
- USD/JPY: May17 Y153.80-00($957mln), Y155.00($1.2bln); May20 Y154.00($1.1bln)
- AUD/USD: May17 $0.6650-55(A$1.1bln); May20 $0.6780-00(A$1.2bln); May21 $0.6565-75(A$1.6bln)
- NZD/USD: May17 $0.5880(N$1.3bln)
- USD/CAD: May17 C$1.3720-35($1.0bln)
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
US: Biden Reverses Trump's Early Polling Advantage, NYT
Apr-15 16:39
A new survey from the New York Times/Siena College has found that, “President Biden has nearly erased Donald J. Trump’s early polling advantage, amid signs that the Democratic base has begun to coalesce behind the president despite lingering doubts about the direction of the country, the economy and his age.”
- NYT notes that Biden and Trump are now virtually tied, with Trump, “holding a 46 percent to 45 percent edge. That is an improvement for Mr. Biden from late February, when Mr. Trump had a sturdier 48 percent to 43 percent lead just before he became the presumptive Republican nominee.”
- Times chief political analyst Nate Cohn writes: “You can't exactly call a one-point deficit the 'Biden comeback, but the result adds to a growing list of polls finding him inching up over the last month."
- Axios notes: “The main reason Biden ticked up in Times/Siena appears to be his improved standing among his 2020 voters — 89% now vs. 83% in February.”
Figure 1: “If the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were Joe Biden and Donald Trump?”
Source New York Time/Siena College
FOREX: USDJPY Surges Above 154.00 Amid Further Hot US Data
Apr-15 16:38
- Higher-than-expected retail sales data in the US prompted further upward pressure on US yields to start the week, maintaining an underlying bid for the greenback and further weighing on a struggling Japanese Yen.
- USDJPY had already rallied in Asia as risk sentiment stabilised amid the ongoing concerns in the middle east. This saw the pair extend its impressive advance to around 153.80, following the prior clean break above 152.00.
- Aided by the US data, the pair then cleared 154.00 and printed fresh cycle highs at 154.45. Japan’s top currency official said that the MOF is in frequent contact with FX officials abroad, however, the fundamental backdrop and widening yield differentials continue to drive USDJPY higher.
- Further defying the Japanese authorities’ warnings of intervention against outsized moves in the currency, CFTC data shows the JPY net short position growing to 50% of open interest – leaving markets outright short by 162,151 contracts, the largest net short since the onset of the Global Financial Crisis in 2007.
- Elsewhere, G10 ranges were more subdued with EURUSD briefly matching Friday’s lows around 1.0622 in the aftermath of the US data release. The moderate pull lower for equities leaves NZD as the underperformer, falling 0.4% against the greenback.
- The high frequency of UK risk events this week has prompted a solid rally in the front-end of the vol curve, with 1-week vols touching new multi-month highs today. This leaves the one-week breakeven on a GBP/USD straddle at ~100 pips, leaving support at 1.2427 – last week’s GBP/USD low - exposed ahead of 1.2364, seen as firmer support.
- Chinese activity data will be the highlight of Tuesday’s Asia-Pac session, before focus turns to employment data in the UK. The latter half of the session will have Canada CPI for March.
US STOCKS: Equities Roundup: Paring Early Gains, Geopol Risk Factor
Apr-15 16:33
- Stocks are trading mixed at midday - Dow still outperforming after paring early gains as Middle East tensions continue to test the market's appetite for risk. Currently, DJIA is up 61.06 points (0.16%) at 38052.95, S&P E-Minis down 3.5 points (-0.07%) at 5164.75, Nasdaq down 51.2 points (-0.3%) at 16125.54.
- Leading Gainers: Health Care and Financial sector stocks outperformed in the first half, equipment and services shares buoyed the former with Centene +4.43%, Cardinal Health +2.84%, Zimmer Biomet Holdings +1.86%. Banks led gains in the Financial sector after announcing better than expected earnings this morning: M&T Bank + 6.17%, Goldman Sachs +3.62%, Wells Fargo (annc last Friday) +1.96%.
- Laggers: Real Estate and Utility sector shares underperformed in the first half, estate management and services weighed on the former: CoStar Group -2.18%, CBRE Group -1.33%. Independent power providers weighed on Utilities with AES -1.60%, PG&E -0.84%, Dominion Energy -0.67%.
- Expected to announce quarterly earnings Tuesday: Bank of NY Melon, PNC Financial, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley.
