ECB: Lagarde: 25bp Cut Was Unanimous, Report Due On Neutral Next Friday

Jan-30 14:07

The ECB Q&A has started:

Q: Are you still confident about the direction? Schnabel said closer and closer to point about neutral. On neutral, you gave a slightly different range in Davos than last month, is there significance?
A: By lowering our three rates today and particularly the DFR, we have cut by 125bp from our high. There was no discussion as to whether this discussion was appropriate or not, it was unanimous.

  • You’ll have seen the monetary policy statement that we’re still in restrictive territory, it would be premature to discuss the point where we have to stop. Data will inform in the coming weeks and months. We’re lucky that we’ll receive a staff projection in the March decision plus two additional readings on inflation. Data points granted, but a series on data readings that help inform.

A: On r*, you will be pleased to see in eight days on Feb 7 a publication by staff on their revision on the natural rate. It’s not something that we have discussed, it’s a range, it doesn’t give guidelines or a destination, in many ways a conceptual principle.

 

Historical bullets

US TSYS: Post House Price Data React

Dec-31 14:04
  • Treasury futures holding mildly higher levels - little to no reaction to in-line FHFA housing price & slightly higher than expected S&P CoreLogic data.
  • Futures had already pared overnight gains since the top of the hour, the Mar'25 10Y contract currently trades 108-31.5 (+.5), curves off earlier lows: 2s10s +1.041 at 29.924, 5s30s -.316 at 38.559.

MNI:US OCT FHFA HPI SA +0.4% V +0.7% SEP; +4.5% Y/Y

Dec-31 14:00
  • MNI:US OCT FHFA HPI SA +0.4% V +0.7% SEP; +4.5% Y/Y

MNI: US REDBOOK: DEC STORE SALES +5.5% V YR AGO MO

Dec-31 13:55
  • MNI: US REDBOOK: DEC STORE SALES +5.5% V YR AGO MO
  • US REDBOOK: STORE SALES +7.1% WK ENDED DEC 28 V YR AGO WK