EM CEEMEA CREDIT: Kingdom of Bahrain: New USD deal

The EFSF is likely to hold a syndicated transaction this week. Germany, Spain and France are due to hold auctions in the week. Belgium will hold an ORI operation as well as closing its latest Bons d’ Etat retail offering during the week. We pencil in issuance of E30.3bln for the week (excluding retail) up a little from E29.5bln this week.

For the full MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix with a recap of issuance last week and a look ahead to the next two weeks of issuance, click here.

• The EFSF sent an RFP (Request for Proposal) last Wednesday regarding an upcoming transaction. That means a transaction is likely this week (MNI pencil in today or tomorrow). We had initially expected an EFSF transaction in either late August or by mid-September (September had looked likely after the ESM RfP was released on Wednesday 20 August). On size, E3bln could be expected (which would complete the EFSF's funding needs for 2025). There is a chance of a smaller E2bln transaction with a further E1bn sold later this year, but that seems a less likely option to us.
• Germany will kick off auction issuance for the week on Tuesday, selling E4.5bln of the 1.90% Sep-27 Schatz (ISIN: DE000BU22106).
• Germany will return to the market on Wednesday, with E5bln of the 10-year 2.60% Aug-35 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2Z056) on offer.
• Also on Wednesday, the subscription period for Belgium’s Bons d’ Etat is scheduled to close. Two lines will be on offer for retail investors: the 1-year 1.90% Sep-26 Bons d' Etat (ISIN: BE3871306366) and the 10-year 3.20% Sep-35 Bons d' Etat (ISIN: BE3871307372).
  • After the first three days (to Thursday 28 August), E147.7mln of the 1-year and E40.5mln of the 10-year had been taken up.

• RES 4: 5575.00 High Mar 3 and a major resistance (cont) 
• RES 3: 5568.00 High Mar 6  
• RES 2: 5526.00 High Mar 19 / 20 (cont) 
• RES 1: 5445.00/5522.00 High Aug 26 / 22 
• PRICE: 5367.00 @ 06:29 BST Sep 1
• SUP 1: 5353.00 Low Aug 29 
• SUP 2: 5325.00 Low Aug 12   
• SUP 3: 5280.00 Low Aug 7 
• SUP 4: 5166.00 Low Aug 1 and a key support   

The trend set-up in Eurostoxx 50 futures is bullish and the pullback from the Aug 22 high appears corrective - for now. Note that support at 5376.13, the 50-day EMA, has been pierced. A clear break of this average would strengthen a S/T bearish threat and signal scope for a deeper retracement towards 5166.00, the Aug 1 low and a key support. On the upside, resistance to watch is 5522.00, the Aug 22 high. A break of it resumes the uptrend.

Germany, the Netherlands, France, Spain, Belgium, the ESM, Greece and the EU all look to sell bills in the upcoming week. We estimate issuance at first round operations at E26.7bln for the week, up from E18.8bln this week.

• Today, Germany will look to sell E3bln of the 6-month Mar 18, 2026 Bubill.
• Also this morning, the Netherlands will look to sell E1.0-2.0bln of the 2-month Oct 30, 2025 DTC alongside E1.0-2.0bln of the new 6-month Feb 26, 2026 DTC.
• This afternoon, France will look to sell up to a combined E7.1bln of 14/19/27/49-week BTFs: 2.6-3.0bln of the new 14-week Dec 10, 2025 BTF, E0-0.4bln of the 19-week Jan 14, 2026 BTF, E1.4-1.8bln of the 27-week Mar 11, 2026 BTF and E1.5b-1.9bln of the 49-week Aug 12, 2026 BTF.
• Tomorrow, Spain will look to sell 6-month Mar 6, 2026 letras and new 12-month Sep 4, 2026 letras. The auction size will be announced this afternoon.
• Also tomorrow morning, Belgium will look to sell a combined E3.0-3.4bln of TCs: an indicative E1.6bln of the 3-month Dec 11, 2025 TC, an indicative E0.8bln of the 6-month Mar 12, 2026 TC and an indicative E0.8bln of the 11-month Aug 13, 2026 TC.
• Later tomorrow, the ESM will hold a larger auction than usual with up to E1.5bln of new 3-month Dec 4, 2025 bills on offer (rather than the usual auction size of up to E1.1bln).
• On Wednesday, Greece will look to sell E500mln of the new 52-week Sep 4, 2026 GTB.
• The EU will conclude bill issuance for the week, also on Wednesday, with up to E1.0bln of the 3-month Dec 5, 2025 EU-bill on offer alongside up to E1.0bln of the 6-month Mar 6, 2026 EU-bill and up to E1.0bln of the new 12-month Sep 4, 2026 EU-bill.