USDCAD TECHS: Key Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 1.4175 High Jul 13
• RES 3: 1.4129 High Jul 28  
• RES 2: 1.4080 High Aug 4 and 5 
• RES 1: 1.4027 50-day EMA  
• PRICE: 1.3924 @ 17:12 BST Aug 11
• SUP 1: 1.3923 Low Aug 11
• SUP 2: 1.3899 50.0% retracement of the May 1 - Jun 24 bull cycle  
• SUP 3: 1.3867 Low May 6
• SUP 4: 1.3817 61.8% retracement of the May 1 - Jun 24 bull cycle 

USDCAD traded lower again Tuesday, confirming an extension of the bear leg that started Jun 24. The move down highlights a clear break of support around the 50-day EMA, at 1.4027. Scope is seen for a deeper retracement of the May 1 - Jun 24 bull leg. Sights are on 1.3899, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that it is still possible that the current bear leg is a correction - medium-term signals remain bullish. Initial resistance is 1.4027, the 50-day EMA.  

• Treasuries look to finish modestly firmer - holding to a narrow session range since mid-morning after Middle East peace headlines yet again buoyed sentiment.
• Risk sentiment drew modest support on headlines that US/Iran talks are "close to some arrangement" citing Pakistan officials. Sentiment consolidated late Tuesday morning after Iranian officials stated the Hormuz Strait remains closed "until conditions are met".
• TYU6 currently +2 at 108-14 (108-04 low / 108-19 high), yield -.0163 at 4.6904%. Initial technical resistance at 108-23/109-015; 20-day EMA / High Aug 07.
• The USD Index traded rangebound, and has struggled to make progress through 100.00. This week's CPI print could help define the near-term trajectory, which sees resistance not only into the 100.00 handle, but 100.058 and, more consequentially, 100.521, the 50% retracement of the post-Fed bear leg.
• Look ahead: Wednesday's schedule includes final July inflation from Germany and Italy; US CPI inflation report for July will be the major market focus.
• Core goods prices have consistently printed below expectations in 2026, including June’s -0.1%, and have been essentially flat since the start of the year despite tariff and energy price pressures.

• RES 4: 0.7144 High Jun 5 
• RES 3: 0.7120 61.8% retracement of the May 6 - Jun 30 bear leg 
• RES 2: 0.7088 High Jun 15
• RES 1: 0.7078 High Aug 7
• PRICE: 0.7062 @ 17:10 BST Aug 11
• SUP 1: 0.7012/0.6922 20-day EMA / Low Jul 29 
• SUP 2: 0.6907 Low Jul 8
• SUP 3: 0.6865 Low Jun 30 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 0.6757 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 ‘25 - May 6 bull cyle

A bull cycle in AUDUSD remains intact for now and last week’s fresh cycle high reinforces the short-term bull theme. Price has recently breached the 50-day EMA, at 0.7013, highlighting a stronger recovery and, Friday’s gains delivered a print above 0.7071, 50.0% of the May 6 - Jun 30 bear leg. A continuation higher would open 0.7112, the 61.8% retracement. The first important support lies at 0.6922, the Jul 29 low.