BRENT TECHS: (K5) Holding On To This Week’s Gains
- RES 4: $79.98 - High Jan 15 and a reversal trigger
- RES 3: $76.78 - High Feb 11 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: $74.76 - High Feb 25
- RES 1: $74.17 - High Mar 26
- PRICE: $73.76 @ 07:05 GMT Mar 28
- SUP 1: $69.90/68.33 - Low Mar 19 / 5 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $67.87 - Low Sep 10 ‘24 and a key medium-term support
- SUP 3: $66.36 1.618 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
- SUP 4: $63.90 2.000 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
Brent futures have traded higher this week and the contract is holding on to its recent highs. For now, short-term gains are considered corrective. However, price has breached the 50-day EMA, at $72.92. The clear break of this average signals scope for a stronger recovery and opens $74.76 next, the Feb 25 high. MA studies remain in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. The bear trigger lies at $68.33, the Mar 5 low.
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BTP TECHS: (H5) Support Remains Intact
- RES 4: 122.85 High Dec 12
- RES 3: 121.88 76.4% retracement of the Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 2: 120.98/121.00 61.8% of Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg / High Feb 7
- RES 1: 120.47 High Feb 13
- PRICE: 120.05 @ Close Feb 25
- SUP 1: 118.95 Low Feb 19
- SUP 2: 118.65/117.16 Low Jan 24 / 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 116.59 76.4% retrace of the Jun - Dec ‘24 bull cycle (cont)
- SUP 4: 116.07 Low Jul 8 ‘24 (cont)
A bullish cycle in BTP futures remains intact and the latest pullback appears corrective - for now. A stronger reversal higher would refocus attention on 120.98 (recently pierced) and 121.88, Fibonacci retracement points. On the downside, initial key support to watch lies at 118.65, the Jan 24 low. Clearance of this price point would instead highlight a reversal and the end of the corrective bull cycle. First support lies at 118.95, the Feb 19 low.
GILT TECHS: (M5) Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 94.24 2.00 proj of the Feb 20 - 24 minor price swing
- RES 3: 94.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 93.83 High Feb 6 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 93.39 High Feb 13
- PRICE: 93.23 @ Close Feb 25
- SUP 1: 92.72 Low Feb 25
- SUP 2: 92.22 Low Feb 24
- SUP 3: 91.79 Low Feb 20 and a bear trigger
- SUP 4: 91.61 Low Jan 21
A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains intact and the latest pullback appears corrective - for now. The contract traded higher Tuesday and attention is on the next resistance at 93.39, the Feb 13 high. Clearance of this short-term hurdle would signal scope for a climb towards 93.83, the high on Feb 6 and a bull trigger. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 91.79, the Feb 20 low. A break of this level would strengthen a bear threat.
GERMAN DATA: Consumer Confidence Falls to Lowest Value Since April
The German GfK consumer climate fell to -24.7 according to the March advance reading, down from a revised -22.6 in February (previously -22.4) in its weakest print since April 2024.
- The print gives another blow to the narrative of a potential German "consumption-driven recovery" en vogue a while ago, but which seems like a distant memory now.
- Private consumption rose 0.1% Q/Q in Q4 according to yesterday's final GDP figures - but the increase was so small that its contribution to overall real Q4 GDP growth rounded down to 0.0pp.
- "Although economic expectations rose slightly, income expectations and willingness to buy fall for the second time in a row. The willingness to save, on the other hand, shows slight increases", GfK comments on the release.
- Next month's survey print will provide an update as to whether last week's parliamentary election (which resulted in core parties gaining enough votes for a potentially more stable two-party government) will have a positive impact on German consumer confidence going forward.
- The survey period was 30 January to 10 February.
