CANADA DATA: June Crude Oil Exports +1.4% To 138M Barrels- Energy Regulator

• +16,500 TYZ6 106.5/109.5 strangles, 1-24 vs. 108-17.5/0.10% 

• Late comments from President Trump on there being a good chance something could happen in talks with Iran have renewed the bearish bias for oil prices on Monday, with the latest leg lower placing Brent crude futures more than 8% lower on the session once again, at $88.88/bbl. Despite the sharp moves lower, the USD index is unchanged on the session, with net G10 adjustments outside of the Norwegian krone remaining very small.
• Negative price action for equities since the US cash open may have provided the offsetting boost for the USD, with the S&P 500 eroding the opening gap higher and Nasdaq futures remaining 0.5% lower on the session.
• The relative lack of impact on the USD index keeps bullish conditions firmly intact, with cycle highs at 101.80 remaining within touching distance. The narrative surrounding pressure on the low yielders also persists, and fresh cycle highs of 0.8190 for USDCHF highlight this point.
• Price action here was assisted by a dovish source report on the SNB, stating that the central bank is set to keep its key interest rate at zero until the end of 2027 before tightening policy. While not a huge surprise to current expectations, it does emphasise the Franc’s attractiveness as a funder, and places heightened focus on a key cluster of resistance at 0.8215 for USDCHF. Meanwhile, EURCHF has retaken the 0.9300 handle. 

• RES 4: 1.1622 High Jun 15 
• RES 3: 1.1561 Trendline resistance drawn from the Apr 17 high
• RES 2: 1.1487 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.1422 20-day EMA 
• PRICE: 1.1376 @ 17:09 BST Jul 27
• SUP 1: 1.1364/25 Low Jul 23/ Low Jun 24 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.1299 2.000 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb 6 - 10 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1210 Low May 29 ‘25
• SUP 4: 1.1111 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 ‘25 - Jan 27 bull leg 

EURUSD has been in a corrective cycle since Jun 24 and the trend condition remains bearish. Gains have delivered a print above the 20-day EMA - at 1.1422. A clear break of this EMA would signal scope for a stronger corrective recovery, towards 1.1487, the 50-day EMA. Note that MA studies are in a bear-mode position - a strong medium-term bearish signal. A resumption of weakness would open 1.1325, the Jun 24 low and bear trigger.