SPAIN DATA: July IP Dragged By Volatile Capital Goods And Energy Production

• Ahead of tomorrow's headline labour market data, the release of the KPMG-REC Report on Jobs for July is also significant in providing any clue if a continually softening UK labour market - a necessity for another quarterly cut in November - is materializing.
• The report showed that the supply of labour continued to expand "sharply", with the rate softening only slightly from June for the second-fastest reading of that subcomponent since December 2020. Permanent placements meanwhile continue their "steep" decline due to "weak confidence around the economic outlook and greater pressure on budgets due to recent increases in payroll cost".
• Wage increases continued to remain on the softer side with the report noting that starting salary wage growth fell to its lowest level since March 2021.
• Vacancies also continued to fall, now at the fastest rate in three months in July.
• Overall, there is little in this report to provide any real positive signs. With the MPC continuing to place strong emphasis on the labour market (and non-headline ONS data) this is another dovish leaning report. Our preview of tomorrow's ONS data will be released later today.

• RES 4: 1.4111 High Apr 10  
• RES 3: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg 
• RES 2: 1.3920 High May 21
• RES 1: 1.3879 High Aug 1
• PRICE: 1.3763 @ 08:26 BST Aug 11
• SUP 1: 1.3557 Low Jul 03
• SUP 2: 1.3540 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024

USDCAD remains subdued, despite the shallow bounce Friday following weaker-than-expected jobs data. The pair remains notably lower on the week on the back of last Friday’s USD weakness. Initial firm support has been breached at the 1.3737 20-day EMA, a break below which would resume the correction off the early August high at 1.3879. On the recent run higher, price traded through the 50-day EMA at 1.3744, which aided the rally. This week’s price action, however, has cancelled that bullish threat and returned focus lower. The 100-dma becomes a key pivot point at 1.3824 last.

• RES 4: 0.6700 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
• RES 2: 0.6677 0.764 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 11 - 17 price swing  
• RES 1: 0.6541/6625 High Aug 7 / 24 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.6518 @ 08:24 BST Aug 11
• SUP 1: 0.6419 Low Aug 1
• SUP 2: 0.6373 Low Jun 23 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 0.6354 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 - Jul 24 upleg  
• SUP 4: 0.6323 Low Apr 16

AUDUSD rallied well off the week’s lowest levels last week on broad USD weakness - erasing any signs of a bearish breakout on the show through the 20- and 50-day EMAs. While support at 0.6455 the Jul 17 low, has been cleared, the recovery in prices keeps key resistance in focus at 0.6625 the Jul 24 high. It also represents the bull trigger. Any return lower would signal a bearish threat into 0.6373, the Jun 23 low.