ISRAEL: JP Morgan Say Door Likely Closed for August BoI Cut
Jul-16 10:32
* Israel's headline CPI rose 0.3% M/m in June, translating into the annual rate rising to 3.3%. Bo...
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LOOK AHEAD: Monday Data Calendar: Empire Mfg, 20Y Bond Auction Re-Open
Jun-16 10:32
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 16-Jun 0830 Empire Manufacturing (-9.2, -6.3)
- 16-Jun 1130 US Tsy $76B 13W & $68B 26W bill auctions
- 16-Jun 1300 US Tsy $13B 20Y Bond auction re-open (912810UL0)
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - USDJPY Bear Threat Remains Present
Jun-16 10:31
- In FX, a bullish EURUSD theme remains intact and the pair continues to trade closer to its recent highs. Last Thursday’s rally resulted in a breach of key resistance at 1.1573, the Apr 21 high. This strengthens the bullish theme and confirms a resumption of this year's uptrend. Sights are on 1.1696 next, a 1.618 projection of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing. Initial firm support is at 1.1404, the 20-day EMA. The 50-day EMA lies at 1.1267. Short-term weakness is considered corrective.
- The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bullish and price is trading closer to its recent highs. A rising price sequence of higher highs and higher lows, together with a bull set-up in moving average studies, highlights a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.3681 next, the 1.500 projection of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing. Support to watch lies at 1.3456, the Jun 10 low.
- USDJPY is trading in a range and remains below last week’s high. Recent weakness suggests the correction between Jun 3 - 11, is over. The trend remains bearish - moving average studies are in a clear bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of weakness would open 142.12, the May 27 low. Key short-term resistance is 146.28, the May 29 high. First resistance is 145.46, Jun 11 high.
STIR: Next Fed Cut Seen In Oct With G7 and Wed FOMC Eyed
Jun-16 10:30
- Fed Funds implied rates are up to 3bp higher for 2025 meetings since Friday’s close despite modest losses for oil futures.
- The 47bp of cuts to end 2025 is off the 42bp seen before last week’s soft CPI report but remains one of the more hawkish levels in recent months.
- Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 0bp for Wed, 5bp for Jul, 19bp for Sep, 32bp for Oct and 47bp for Dec.
- The SOFR implied terminal yield of 3.32% (SFRZ6, unch) points to ~100bp of cuts for what’s left of the easing cycle.
- Markets are focused on tariff and middle east discussions at G7 meetings this week before the FOMC decision on Wednesday.
- MNI Fed Preview: https://media.marketnews.com/Fed_Prev_Jun2025_ba372b9458.pdf
- The full analyst preview note will follow later today.
