STIR: J.P.Morgan Recommend A Couple OF SOFR Positions Focused On Carry
Late on Friday J.P.Morgan noted that they believe that “the easing priced into forwards is unlikely to be realized, which means that "roll-up" yield curve carry trades are likely to be profitable in coming weeks. Second, Fed expectations could be volatile in the near term, and hedging this exposure in carry trades will likely help in improving carry-to-risk ratios.”
- “One way to position for such slide on the yield curve, while mitigating risk with respect to shifting Fed expectations, is to initiate exposure to a flatter U5/M6 3M SOFR futures curve, hedged with 110% risk in Z5/U6 3M SOFR futures curve steepeners.”
- “In a similar vein, we recommend buying the belly of the 35/65 weighted H5/H6/Z6 3M SOFR futures butterfly. This weighted butterfly spread has been highly mean reverting in a relatively tight range and is currently above its recent historical average level. But far more importantly, 3-month slide on this butterfly spread stands at ~11bp, making this another attractive way to position for carry relative to risk.”
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AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS: (Z3) Dovish RBA Cements Last Week’s Strength
- RES 3: 96.160 - High Jul 20
- RES 2: 96.050 - High Sep 4 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 95.924 - High Sep 15
- PRICE: 95.525 @ 16:23 GMT Nov 17
- SUP 1: 94.965 - Low Oct 31
- SUP 2: 94.951 - Lower 2.0% Bollinger Band
- SUP 3: 94.242 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope
Aussie 10yr futures returned higher following the US CPI print, nearing last week’s highs of 95.590 in the process. This reinforces the near-term bottom at 94.965. Nonetheless, nearby resistance remains intact for now, keeping the broader trend direction down. Key support and the bear trigger at 95.660/95.670, the Aug 17 low/Jun 17 2022 low has been breached, confirming the resumption of the medium-term downtrend. The focus is on 95.102, the 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band. Initial key resistance has been defined at 96.050, the Sep 4 high.
USDCAD TECHS: Support Remains Intact
- RES 4: 1.4070 1.236 proj of the Sep 19 - Oct 5 - Oct 10 price swing
- RES 3: 1.4021 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 1.3977 High Oct 13 2022 and a major resistance
- RES 1: 1.3855/3899 High Nov 10 / 1 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.3738 @ 17:10 GMT Nov 17
- SUP 1: 1.3674/29 50-day EMA / Low Nov 6
- SUP 2: 1.3623 Trendline support drawn from the Jul 14 low
- SUP 3: 1.3496 50.0% retracement of the Jul 14 - Nov 1 bull phase
- SUP 4: 1.3417 Low Sep 29
USDCAD has recovered from Wednesday’s low and the 50-day EMA - at 1.3674 - remains a key support. Despite this week’s pullback, the trend outlook is bullish and the pair remains above 1.3629, the Nov 6 low. Furthermore, MA studies continue to highlight an uptrend. A resumption of gains would open the bull trigger at 1.3899, the Nov 1 high. On the downside, a clear break of the 50-day EMA would be a bearish development.
US: Biden's Approval Rating Continues To Slide
According to RealClearPolitics, President Biden is set to finish the week with the lowest net approval rating (-16%) he has experienced since August 10, 2022.
- The continued drift in Biden's approval comes amid a hectic week of public appearances at the APEC summit which may reflect poorly on his approval in the coming weeks as voter concerns over Biden's age and physically capacities tend to increase with exposure.
- A Quinnipiac poll released this week saw Biden's approval drop from 39% to the 37% since November 1, perhaps reflecting soft support from Democrats over Biden's handling of the Israel-Gaza war.
- The poor run of polling, particularly in battleground states, has intensified speculation that Biden may be pressed to step aside to clear the path for a more "electable" candidate.
- Betting markets see California Governor Gavin Newsom (D-CA) as the most credible candidate to replace Biden although it remains an low-probability this late in the campaign.
- News outlets have highlighted a seemingly ad-libbed remark from Biden this week stating of Newsom, "he could be anything he wants. He could have the job I’m looking for,” as evidence that Newsom may be in the equation, should Biden's support continue to crater.
- ElectionBettingOdds has programmed a new tracker suggesting that Newsom (70%) is significantly more electable than Biden (40%).
Figure 1: President Biden Approval Rating
Source: RealClearPolitics
