EQUITIES: Italian Equities Hit Best Level Since 2008
The Eurostoxx 50 futures uptrend remains intact and the pair has recovered from Monday’s low. A continuation higher would open 4448.00, the Jun 16 high and the bull trigger. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and expose 4472.40, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key support lies at 4241.00, the May 31 low. A breach of this level is required to signal a reversal. A bull theme in S&P E-minis remains intact and the recent pullback still appears to be a correction. The move lower has allowed an overbought trend condition to unwind. Key near-term support at the 20-day EMA, which intersects at 4376.94, remains intact. A break of this average would strengthen a short-term bearish theme and signal scope for a deeper pullback. On the upside, the bull trigger is 4493.75, the Jun 16 high.
- Japan's NIKKEI closed lower by 45.1 pts or -0.14% at 33189.04 and the TOPIX ended 7.65 pts lower or -0.33% at 2288.6.
- Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed higher by 19.681 pts or +0.62% at 3202.062 and the HANG SENG ended 17.93 pts lower or -0.09% at 18916.43.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades higher by 124.87 pts or +0.78% at 16070.79, FTSE 100 higher by 38.75 pts or +0.52% at 7509.45, CAC 40 up 54.27 pts or +0.74% at 7366.86 and Euro Stoxx 50 up 20.02 pts or +0.46% at 4374.64.
- Dow Jones mini up 35 pts or +0.1% at 34386, S&P 500 mini up 10.5 pts or +0.24% at 4446, NASDAQ mini up 65.75 pts or +0.44% at 15165.5.
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GREECE T-BILL AUCTION RESULTS: 26-week GTBs
| Type | 26-week GTB |
| Maturity | Dec 1, 2023 |
| Amount | E625mln |
| Target | E625mln |
| Previous | E625mln |
| Avg yield | 3.50% |
| Previous | 3.50% |
| Bid-to-cover | 2.13x |
| Previous | 1.81x |
| Previous date | Apr 26, 2023 |
GERMAN DATA: MNI Projects CPI Cooling to +6.12% in Downside Surprise
We have now received state data that equates to 88.0% weighting of the national German CPI print (due at 1300 BST / 1400 CET).
- MNI calculations estimate that CPI fell by -0.07% m/m, and eased to +6.12% y/y in May. This is based on the published index values for available state data. This implies a substantial 1.1pp deceleration on the annualised figure from +7.2% y/y in April, as German headline inflation distances itself further from the October/November peak of +8.8% y/y.
- For m/m and y/y, our estimate is around 0.3pp and 0.4pp below the current Bloomberg consensus forecast.
- Today's state data also points towards a decent reduction in core CPI for Germany, after holding close to the euro-era high at +5.8% y/y in April. Core CPI data excluding both energy and food is only available for six states which account for 50% of the headline index. These all saw core CPI easing by 0.2pp to 0.7pp on the headline annualised prints, with a weighted average reduction of -0.47pp.
- Note: this is in relation to the national CPI print - not the HICP print (which feeds into the Eurozone HICP print that the ECB targets). The magnitude of surprises to consensus can sometimes be different due to the different methodologies and weights used in national CPI vs HICP - but the direction of the surprise is normally the same.
| M/M | May (reported) | Apr (reported) | Difference | Weighting |
| North Rhine Westphalia | -0.2% | 0.4% | -0.6% | 21.1% |
| Hesse | 0.0% | 0.3% | -0.3% | 7.7% |
| Bavaria | -0.1% | 0.4% | -0.5% | 16.9% |
| Brandenburg | 0.1% | 0.4% | -0.3% | 2.9% |
| Baden Wuert. | 0.1% | 0.5% | -0.4% | 14.1% |
| Berlin | -0.3% | 0.7% | -1.0% | 4.0% |
| Saxony | -0.3% | 0.3% | -0.6% | 4.6% |
| Rhineland-Palatinate | 0.0% | 0.4% | -0.4% | 4.9% |
| Lower Saxony | -0.1% | 0.4% | -0.5% | 9.4% |
| Saxony-Anhalt | 0.2% | 0.3% | -0.1% | 2.4% |
| Weighted average: | -0.07% | for | 88.0% |
| Y/Y | May (reported) | Apr (reported) | Difference | Weighting |
| North Rhine Westphalia | 5.7% | 6.7% | -1.0% | 21.1% |
| Hesse | 5.9% | 6.9% | -1.0% | 7.7% |
| Bavaria | 6.1% | 7.2% | -1.1% | 16.9% |
| Brandenburg | 6.3% | 7.6% | -1.3% | 2.9% |
| Baden Wuert. | 6.6% | 7.3% | -0.7% | 14.1% |
| Berlin | 6.0% | 7.5% | -1.5% | 4.0% |
| Saxony | 6.5% | 7.6% | -0.2% | 4.6% |
| Rhineland-Palatinate | 6.1% | 7.1% | -1.0% | 4.9% |
| Lower Saxony | 6.4% | 7.5% | -1.1% | 9.4% |
| Saxony-Anhalt | 6.4% | 7.3% | -0.9% | 2.4% |
| Weighted average: | 6.12% | for | 88.0% |
EQUITIES: Estoxx put buyer
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