GERMAN DATA: IP Stronger In November With Plenty Of Moving Parts
- German industrial production was stronger than expected in November rising 0.8%M/M (with a 0.2ppt upside revision to October) after we've flagged upside risks to consensus following yesterday's factory orders print.
- "The less volatile three-month on three-month comparison showed that production was 0.7% higher in the period from September 2025 to November 2025 than in the previous three months", Destatis comments.
- On drivers: "The positive development of production in November 2025 was mainly attributable to the growth observed in the automotive industry (+7.8% on the previous month, seasonally and calendar adjusted). The increases registered in the manufacture of machinery and equipment (+3.2%) and in machine maintenance and assembly (+10.5%) also had a positive impact on the overall result. By contrast, the decrease in energy production (-7.8%) had a negative effect."
- Looking ahead to December, the truck toll index indicatively gives a quite positive outlook for the last month of the year, with the index increasing 3.2% M/M. There is a "clear correlation between the truck toll mileage index and indices of economic activity, particularly industrial production. As the truck toll mileage index is available around a month earlier than the production index, it is suitable as an early indicator of economic development", Destatis comments on the data also just released.
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BTP TECHS: (H6) Impulsive Bear Wave
- RES 4: 121.33 High Oct 21 and a key resistance area
- RES 3: 121.37 High Nov 13
- RES 2: 121.24 High Nov 26
- RES 1: 120.17/77 Low Nov 20 / High Dec 3
- PRICE: 119.62 @ Close Dec 9
- SUP 1: 119.34 Low Dec 9
- SUP 2: 119.30 1.618 proj of the Nov 13 - 20 - 26 price swing
- SUP 3: 119.12 1.764 proj of the Nov 13 - 20 - 26 price swing
- SUP 4: 118.84 2.000 proj of the Nov 13 - 20 - 26 price swing
BTP futures have this week traded through an important support at 120.17, the Nov 20 low. This highlights the fact that a bearish phase remains in play for now, signalling scope for a deeper short-term retracement. The impulsive sell-off on Monday opens 119.30 next, a Fibonacci projection. The contract is oversold, a recovery would allow this set-up to unwind. Initial firm resistance to watch is 120.17, the Nov 20 low.
EURJPY TECHS: Clears The Bull Trigger
- RES 4: 184.34 2.236 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
- RES 3: 184.21 Bull channel top drawn from the Feb 28 low
- RES 2: 183.07 2.000 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
- RES 1: 182.64 High Dec 09
- PRICE: 182.32 @ 07:04 GMT Dec 10
- SUP 1: 180.50 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 178.98/178.47 Low Nov 14 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 177.15 Low Nov 10
- SUP 4: 176.08 Bull channel support drawn from the Feb 28 low
The trend needle in EURJPY continues to point north and a fresh cycle high this week reinforces current conditions. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The cross has cleared 182.01, the Nov 20 high and bull trigger. The breach confirms a resumption of the uptrend. Sights are on 184.21, the top of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 28 low. First key support is 180.50, the 20-day EMA.
MNI: NORWAY NOV CPI-ATE -0.3% M/M, +3.0% Y/Y
- MNI: NORWAY NOV CPI-ATE -0.3% M/M, +3.0% Y/Y
- NORWAY NOV CPI +0.1% M/M, +3.0% Y/Y
