SWAPS: ING: Dutch Pension Reforms Could Have Clarity Soon
ING note that “as expected, the vote on the change in Dutch pension reform rules was delayed, but the timelines going forward are shorter than expected. Today, parliament will come together to discuss an updated proposal. The vote will be scheduled for next week, likely on 20 May. This shortens the uncertainty about potential delays. Approving the proposal would require pension funds to offer participants an opt-out and instead keep accrued pensions under the old defined benefits system. Such a change would mean that a transition date of 1 January 2026 for many major funds would no longer be realistic”.
- “The updated proposal keeps the opt-out clause as the default option. Funds can also still choose to go for a vote of approval, which would need a majority and a minimum of 30% participation rate. Compared to earlier versions of the proposal, it now includes more communication requirements. The annexe of the proposal also attempts to address some of the concerns various stakeholders have voiced about the complexity of the proposed changes. Our baseline remains that the proposal fails to find a majority given the broad-based criticism. A lot will hinge on a few smaller parties. If approved, however, we could see some reaction in the long end of the swap curve as market participants reconsider their curve steepeners”.
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SWEDEN: Riksbank Relief As LT Inflation Expectations Steady In April
Swedish money market participant 5-year ahead CPIF inflation expectations were steady at 2.3% in April. While this series has moved away from the 2% target in recent months, in line with an acceleration in spot inflation pressures, the Riksbank will be relieved that the April survey did not report a renewed uptick.
- In an interview with MNI earlier this month, Riksbank Deputy Governor Jansson said that rising trade tariffs are likely to depress economic growth, but while their effects on inflation may be short-lived monetary policymakers must be alert to any risk of price expectations becoming de-anchored.
- Jansson noted that while in theory the Riksbank would be able to look through elevated inflation if expectations remain stable in the near-term, Jansson highlighted the difficulties in practice of doing so and made the case for acting decisively if need be.
- One-year ahead expectations were also unchanged at 2.2%, while 2-year ahead expectations ticked up to 2.3% (vs 2.1% prior).
- 1-year ahead GDP growth expectations were revised sharply lower (1.6% vs 2.4% prior), likely reflecting US President Trumps reciprocal tariff announcements. 2-year ahead GDP growth expectations were 2.0% (vs 2.4% prior), and 5-year ahead expectations were 2.0% (vs 2.1% prior).
- As such, money market participants now expect a deeper Riksbank easing cycle over the next 24 months.
- The survey was conducted Apr 7-Apr 11.
SILVER TECHS: Monitoring Resistance At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: $34.903 - High Oct 23 ‘24 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $34.590 - High Mar 28
- RES 2: $33.117 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 28 - Apr 7 bear leg
- RES 1: $32.313 - High Appr 7
- PRICE: $32.064 @ 08:04 BST Apr 14
- SUP 1: $30.57728.351 - Low Apr 10 / 7 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24
- SUP 3: $27.180 - Low Aug 14 ‘24
- SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8 ‘24 and a key support
Silver is holding on to last week’s gains. For now, the recent move higher appears corrective. The metal on Apr 7, traded through support at $28.748, the Dec 19 low. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a continued sell-off, towards $27.686, the Sep 6 ‘24 low. On the upside, resistance to watch is $32.208 the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would alter the picture and highlight a stronger reversal.
MNI EXCLUSIVE: Japan's export market is creating challenges for the BOJ
Japan's uncertain export market is creating challenges for the BOJ's strategy. On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com
