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• RES 3: 97.190 - High May 5 2023
• RES 2: 96.932 - 76.4% of Mar-Nov ‘23 bear leg 
• RES 1: 96.860 - High Apr 07
• PRICE: 96.720 @ 16:01 BST Jun 27
• SUP 1: 95.900 - Low Jan 14  
• SUP 2: 95.760 - Low 14 Nov ‘24
• SUP 3: 95.480 - Low Jan 11 2023 and a major support 

Aussie 3-yr futures rallied off lower levels on the recent RBA rate cut and guidance, however prices remain south of the 50-dma for now. The recent strength is again challenging resistance at 96.730, the Sep 17 ‘24 high, leaving 96.860 as the next key level. Instead, a continuation lower would strengthen a bearish theme. This would refocus attention on 95.760, the 14 Nov ‘24 low. Conversely, a reversal higher would refocus attention on 96.860, the Apr 7 high.

The global bank outlines its USD viewpoints for H2 below. It stays bearish the USD and looks at drivers for the second half and how this may differ from H1. 

J.P. Morgan: "Stay bearish USD. Valuation undershoots vs. rates/ equities, positioning, carry, and a paucity of discrete catalysts are not a constraint for further weakness.
The quality of USD carry has deteriorated on softer growth, lower real yields and rising term premium. Historically, the most USD-negative outcomes have been when term premium is going up but the market is pricing in Fed cuts.
Unlike in recent years when we posited that USD smile was narrow, we now think the dollar smile will be wider with more USD weakness on a US moderation before any ultimate safe-haven bid.
Higher/ broad-based tariffs will remain USD-negative, but a shift to a more targeted approach towards certain economies could change this dynamic. This is a wildcard for the euro.
FX hedge rebalancing from under-hedged sectors in Europe and APAC should continue to act as a dollar depressant. We present historical hedge ratios data for pension funds / lifers across G10; higher hedge ratios could be most impactful for CAD, SEK, SGD, KRW, CHF, AUD given large US asset holdings.
Significant CNY strength is not a pre-condition for USD weakness, but the PBoC likely needs to at least directionally bless the trend via a moderate drift lower in USD/CNY fixings; the good news for USD bears is that this is already in train.
High nominal carry has not been a deterrent to USD weakness in the past. Constructing carry-efficient short dollar proxies such as RMB shorts or CAD shorts vs. Scandis/ Antipodeans could provide an alternative approach to correct for onerous carry in USD shorts.
Thematic differentiation across FX in H2 should run along various axes: Fiscal differentiation for DM FX (favors CHF, Scandis, antipodeans over USD, GBP, JPY)...
...outperformance of mid- to low-yielding FX with the peak intensity of US exceptionalism and Fed tightening behind us, leading C/A surplus FX to outperform deficit ones...
...regional outperformance of the euro bloc and early cutters outperforming on lagged growth impact. This leaves us overweight EUR, Scandi, Antipodeans in G10 FX and overweight EM FX overall across regions.
At a bottom-up currency level, the most notable deltas in views from H1 to H2 are: more bullish on NZD, CAD and CHF, less bullish on JPY, and more bearish on GBP. We stay bullish the euro- and Antipodean bloc FX.
We consider various macro risk scenarios to our FX view. The primary risk for the dollar is if strong US growth keeps the Fed high-for-long with RoW growth faltering. But a high-for-long Fed motivated by firm inflation despite soft growth should be considered USD-negative."

The global bank looks at USD depreciation risks and drivers. It sees risks next downside move in USD may reflect more convention macro drivers. 

Goldman Sachs: "USD: Thinking fast and slow. The Dollar made new lows earlier this week, and as we approach the six-month point of this move, the fast depreciation trajectory is very much in line with other large Dollar depreciations from the peak. Beyond this point, the move has often become slower and choppier across historical episodes, although depreciation post the 1985 peak—when Dollar overvaluation was of a similar magnitude to late last year—continued at a more rapid rate. A key distinguishing feature of that episode was a significant and extended reduction in front-end US rates and rate differentials, and the most recent leg lower in the Dollar this past week has had some of that flavour. After a period where it has often felt like the Dollar was depreciating despite rate differentials staying wide, often a marker of shifting flows, in recent sessions it has felt like the move lower in US front-end rates has again been pertinent, alongside a diminishing safe-haven effect as risks from the Middle-East have rapidly relaxed. If geopolitical risks remain subdued, and US political risks for the Dollar also move off centre-stage (with section 899 likely omitted from the fiscal bill and reciprocal tariff deadlines underplayed or extended), the next impulse for the Dollar may come from more conventional ‘bread and butter’ macro. A clearer dovish tilt from the Fed on the back of more visible weakening in the upcoming labour market data could be an important near-term catalyst, sparking further Dollar weakness versus majors such as EUR and JPY. Absent that, a more gradual grind weaker in the Dollar is still the most likely outcome, supporting EM carry strategies, and a steady move stronger in CNY, with implications across Asia."