US: House Republicans To Unveil New Foreign Aid/Border Bill As Soon As Thursday
Feb-14 18:47
Rep Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA) told reporters today that a group of House Representatives plan to release an alternative foreign policy aid bill - which includes funding for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan - and a border security package as soon as Thursday.
- Fitzpatrick, a Republican member of the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus, said: “Stay tuned in the next 24 hours, I think you’ll see something that I think will be bipartisan,” but declined to confirm whether it would be a formal proposal from the centrist group.
- Fitzpatrick's comments come as Congress awaits House Speaker Mike Johnson's response to the Senate-passed USD$95 billion foreign aid bill. Johnson told reporters today: “The Republican-led House will not be jammed or forced into passing a foreign aid bill,” despite a concerted effort from Biden administration officials to force Johnson into action on the bill.
- AP noted today: "The slow-walk of U.S. aid to an ally during the largest ground war in Europe since World War II shows how far Republicans have retreated from overseas leadership in line with Trump."
- MNI's Political Risk Team outlines some of pathways the legislation could take through the House, should Speaker Johnson reject a vote. These include a long-shot discharge petition or "defeating the previous rule." LINK
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US TSYS: Inside Range Into Early Holiday Close
Jan-15 18:35
- Still weaker, Tsy futures back near midmorning highs at the early close" TYH4 at 112-13.5 (-5.5) last, compares to session low of 112-07 -- well inside technical levels: initial resistance above at 112-26+ (High Jan 12), initial support at 111-06+ (Low Jan 05)
- Volumes remain very light, TYH4 just over 250k, with most markets closed in observance of the Martin Luther King Holiday. Monday Globex re-open at 1800ET precedes normal session hours Tuesday.
- As noted earlier, Tsys appeared to follow EGBs lead after ECB Holzmann's hawkish opinion of no rate cut in 2024. On the flipside, former ECB economist Riccardo Trezzi told MNI he expects the ECB to reduce its benchmark deposit rate by around 150 basis points this year.
- Cross assets: CME S&P Eminis see-saw off lows: ESH4 -3.0 at 4813.5 (DJIA and Nasdaq closed for MLK holiday), Crude weaker (WTI -.23 at 72.45), Gold firmer: +5.79 at 2054.85.
GBPUSD TECHS: Trading Closer To Its Recent Highs
Jan-15 18:31
- RES 4: 1.3045 High Jul 19
- RES 3: 1.2996 High Jul 27
- RES 2: 1.2881 76.4% retracement of the Jul 14 - Oct 4 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.2827 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.2735 @ 16:34 GMT Jan 15
- SUP 1: 1.2611/2610 Low Jan 03 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.2500 Low Dec 13
- SUP 3: 1.2449 Low Nov 22
- SUP 4: 1.2374 Low Nov 17
The trend outlook in GBPUSD is unchanged and remains bullish. Price continues to trade closer to its recent highs. Sights are on resistance at 1.2827, the Dec 28 high and a bull trigger. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 1.2881, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm support is at 1.2611, the Jan 2 low. The 50-day EMA lies just below at 1.2610. Clearance of both support points would highlight a short-term top.
CANADA: Canada CPI Preview
Jan-15 18:29
- Released Jan 16 at 0830ET, consensus sees headline CPI accelerating three tenths to 3.4% Y/Y in Dec after two months at 3.1%, with energy-related base effects playing a role.
- The BoC’s preferred core inflation meanwhile is seen edging a tenth lower to 3.35% Y/Y after surprising higher with no change in November.
- Focus should continue to remain on higher frequency measures of core inflation, with some seeing a firming after the drop to 2.5% annualized over the three months to November, whilst the six-month average has stalled at 3.3% annualized suggesting some recent stickiness in inflation.
- The report follows today’s BoC business and consumer surveys, which showed only slow progress in short-term inflation expectations moving back closer to ‘normal’ levels.
- There’s still IPPI on Wed and retail sales on Fri, but CPI will play the key role in guiding market expectations of the tone to expect from the BoC’s decision on Jan 24 (with a first cut seen coming in April).
Recent core CPI trends:
