USDCAD TECHS: Holding On To Its Latest Gains

• RES 4: $72.076 - 50.0% retracement of the May 13 - Jul 17 bear leg
• RES 3: $71.555 - High Jun 17
• RES 2: $67.993 - 38.2% retracement of the May 13 - Jul 17 bear leg
• RES 1: $66.795 - High Aug 12         
• PRICE: $63.137 @ 08:18 BST Aug 19
• SUP 1: $62.300/54.778 - 20-day EMA / Low Jul 17 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $52.577 - 1.000 proj of the Mar 2 - 23 - May 13 price swing  
• SUP 3: $50.000 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $48.644 - Low Nov 21 ‘25 

The M/T trend theme in Silver is bearish and S/T gains are - for now - considered corrective. However, the extension higher this month has resulted in a move through resistance around $63.211, the 50-day EMA. The break highlights a potential S/T reversal and signals scope for a stronger recovery near-term, towards $67.993, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger lies at $54.778, the Jul 17 low.

Lagarde's speech focuses on longer-term growth drivers and challenges facing Europe, concluding with a familiar call to expand the EU Single Market. Nothing on near-term monetary policy here. It’s a panel discussion, so additional headlines may filter through during the morning.

• “Europe’s post-war growth model rested on three mutually reinforcing pillars. Today, all three are weakening as the international environment changes.” Lagarde highlights Expanding global trade, strength in mid-tech manufacturing, supported by cheap energy, and a stable rules-based global order.
• She stresses that a large network of trade agreements, still-strong manufacturing capabilities and a large consumer market are strengths to build on.
• “Last year the euro area economy grew by 1.5%, driven entirely by domestic demand. In 2026 it has continued to grow despite the energy shock, with domestic demand contributing positively to the quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.4% in the second quarter of 2026.[9] Domestic demand is projected to remain the main source of growth for the euro area this year.”
• “The task now is to turn that domestic resilience into a more durable source of growth over the long run. This requires Europe to make better use of the scale of its home market. “
• “Europe largely missed out on the first digital revolution, as the commercial gains from the spread of information and communication technologies were captured disproportionately elsewhere. We cannot afford to repeat that experience with artificial intelligence (AI), the second digital revolution.”

The combination of the lack of meaningful upside surprise in UK CPI data and pullback from highs in oil markets has promoted some bull steepening on the gilt curve in early trade. Benchmark yields 2.5-4.0bp lower.

• Yesterday’s move higher in yields has fully reversed, with benchmarks at/below Monday closing levels. Only 50s managed to break key yield resistance during yesterday’s sell off, 2s and 10s respected/failed to challenge recent highs.
• 2s10s consolidates the break above 70bp and a cluster of mid-March intraday highs. Little of technical note to the upside until a cluster of early March highs just ahead of 80bp.
• 5s30s has pierced, but not forced a clean break above, July intraday highs (123.59bp). Yesterday’s high is located at 123.67bp. A break above would expose 125bp and the April high (125.42bp).
• The mix of a BoE that remains comfortable in wait and see mode and well-documented UK fiscal risks tilt the medium-term picture in favour of further curve steepening, but wider sentiment and energy prices swings surrounding the Middle East remain key intraday.
• Positioning wise, the latest round of sell-side notes that we have read held a bias towards 2s10s steepening on the gilt and UK swaps curves.