CZK: Hawkish Macroeconomic Data Is Boon For Koruna
Jun-04 10:04
EUR/CZK trades -0.064 at 24.830 and the koruna is among the best EMEA performers. Bears look for losses towards Jun 25, 2024 low of 24.801, while bulls look for a recovery towards the 25.0 mark.
- The reception of macroeconomic data released out of Czechia has been hawkish on balance, cementing expectations that the CNB will stand pat on interest rates later this month.
- Volatile food prices and an uptick in services prices drove headline inflation higher, retail sales exceeded expectations, while average wage growth remained robust (albeit marginally weaker than forecast by the CNB).
- In a win for the embattled government, the Supreme Administrative Court annulled the blocking of a nuclear deal with South Korea's KHNP for the procurement of new reactors at the Dukovany power plant.
- However, the focus in local politics is on the 'bitcoin scandal' which may prove very costly to PM Fiala's administration as it fights an uphill battle to fend off a challenge from ANO in a parliamentary election this autumn.
- CZGB yield curve has shifted higher, which has been facilitated by local data.
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - EUROSTOXX 50 Bull Cycle Remains In Play
May-05 09:56
- In the equity space, the latest recovery in S&P E-Minis reinforces current bullish conditions. The contract has traded through the 50-day EMA, at 5620.87. A continuation of the bull phase would expose 5837.25 next, the Mar 25 high and a bull trigger. It is still possible that the entire rally since Apr 7 is a correction. A reversal lower would signal the end of this corrective phase and expose initially, support at 5127.25, the Apr 21 low. First support lies at 5511.99, the 20-day EMA.
- EUROSTOXX 50 futures maintain a positive tone and Friday’s rally strengthens the current bull cycle. The contract has cleared both the 20- and 50-day EMAs, and attention is on 5263.01, the 76.4% retracement of the Mar 3 - Apr 7 bear leg. Clearance of this level would pave the way for a climb towards 5341.00, the Mar 27 high. Initial support to watch lies at 5047.80, the 20-day EMA. A breach of this level would signal a possible reversal.
SWITZERLAND DATA: CPI Details Point Towards Travel-Related Svcs; Overall Soft
May-05 09:53
Looking at the details of the April Swiss CPI print indicates that while the overall decline does appear broad-based, volatile travel-related services did have a particularly negative impact this time.
- While some of that might have the potential to reverse next time, the print remains soft - markets now price about a 1/4 chance of an outsized 50bp cut to -0.25% at the next SNB meeting in June, and EURCHF has seen some strength following the release, printing 0.9362 at typing. Initial resistance for the cross should stand at 0.9438, the April 28 high.
- Contribution to headline of travel-related services (airfares, hotels, package holidays, rental cars) was 0.145pp lower this time than in March - explaining the overall services contribution drop in full (see table).
- That appears a little surprising as in the Eurozone, national-level data released last week indicated that travel-related items were particularly firm in April this time amid the so-called Easter Effect - we might have expected some correlation there. One notable caveat here is that the Swiss M/M HICP print (which is being produced using standardized European methodology) was 0.7% - much higher than the 0.0% M/M CPI (which is the one the SNB focuses on).
CROSS ASSET: The Dollar falls, Gold firms above $3,300.00
May-05 09:41
- Some downside continuation for the Dollar, testing intraday lows against the AUD, NOK, CZK, SGD, ZAR, GBP, JPY, and {o4} Gold has broken back above $3,300.00.
- AUDUSD is looking to break above 0.6500 ahead of the next resistance at 0.6528 High Nov 29 ‘24.
- USDJPY is eyeing 143.73, this was Friday's printed low.
