EU REAL ESTATE: Hammerson: Operational Update (HMSOLN; Baa2pos/NR/A-)

• RES 4: 121.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 120.74 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 120.61 High Aug 14
• RES 1: 120.42 High Sep 5
• PRICE: 120.35 @ Close Sep 8
• SUP 1: 119.06/118.36 Low Sep 4 / 3        
• SUP 2: 118.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 117.70 2.236 proj of the Aug 5 - 12 - 14 price swing 
• SUP 4: 117.36 2.500 proj of the Aug 5 - 12 - 14 price swing 

The primary trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged and the direction remains up. The strong rally from last week’s low highlights a bullish development and signals the end of the recent corrective pullback between Aug 5 - Sep 3. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 120.74, the Aug 5 high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Key support has been defined at 118.36, the Sep 3 low.

• RES 4: 92.30 High Aug 7
• RES 3: 92.06 High Aug 14      
• RES 2: 92.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 91.61 High Sep 5 
• PRICE: 91.55 @ Close Sep 8
• SUP 1: 90.65 Low Sep 2
• SUP 2: 90.31/89.36 Low Sep 4 / 3
• SUP 3: 89.22 1.618 proj of the Aug 21 - 27 - 28 price swing 
• SUP 4: 89.00 Round number support   

A strong rally in Gilt futures last week and bullish start to this week’s session, highlights a stronger corrective cycle. The move higher is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. The contract has breached initial firm resistance at 90.84, the Aug 28 and 29 high. A continuation higher would open 92.06, the Aug 14 high. On the downside, initial support lies at 90.65, the Sep 5 low.

Norwegian PM Jonas Gahr Støre has secured a second term in office following yesterday’s election, with his centre-left Labour party winning 28% of the vote (53 seats out of 169, up from 48 prior). Link to full results here. 

• Labour and its allies (the Centre, Socialist Left, Green and Red parties) won 87 votes in total, a shade above the 85-seat threshold required for a majority.
• This outcome is in line with the most likely scenario outlined in MNI’s preview.
• As such, we don’t expect major market moves in NOK FX and rates today, with the status quo around the aggregate fiscal stance likely to be retained. EURNOK and NOKSEK trade comfortably within their prior two session’s ranges att typing.
• Following the election, Labour will have to govern either as a minority or coalition government (the former is common in Norwegian politics). The first order of business for Støre is to get support for the 2026 budget later this year.
• Victory for Støre was aided by a poor showing from the Conservative Party (15% of the vote, 24 seats down from 36 prior).
• That saw the right-wing Progress Party surge to become the primary opposition, winning 24% of the vote (48 seats, up from 21 prior).
• As we noted in our preview, primary focus for NOK markets this week is on tomorrow’s August inflation report and Thursday’s Q3 Regional Network Survey. We will send a short inflation preview out later today. 

Figure 1: Norway Election Results (Source: Politico)