US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H5) Cleanly Tops 50-day EMA
Feb-05 16:42
- RES 4: 110-25 High Dec 12
- RES 3: 110-19 76.4% retracement of the Dec 6 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 2: 109-30 61.8% retracement of the Dec 6 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 1: 109-27 High Feb 5
- PRICE: 109-25 @ 16:30 GMT Feb 5
- SUP 1: 108-20+ Low Feb 4
- SUP 2: 108-06/107-06 Low Jan 23 / 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 107-04 Low Apr 25 ‘24 and a key support
- SUP 4: 106-11 2.00 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing
Treasury futures extended the rally into Wednesday trade, hitting a weekly high at 109-27. The contract is building on recent gains having cleanly topped resistance at the 50-day EMA of 109-10. This strengthens the short-term bullish case and highlights potential for a stronger reversal. This would open 109.30, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial support to watch is 108-20+, Tuesday’s low. Clearance of it would signal a reversal.
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FED: US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.110%(ALLOT 86.16%)
Jan-06 16:32
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.110%(ALLOT 86.16%)
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 21.55% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 7.98% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 70.47% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: BID/CVR 3.20
FED: US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.205%(ALLOT 83.88%)
Jan-06 16:32
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.205%(ALLOT 83.88%)
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 40.40% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 5.55% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 54.06% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: BID/CVR 3.01
AUSTRALIA: NAB and ANZ Views on November CPI Data Due Wednesday
Jan-06 16:29
- **NAB pencil in 2.4% y/y from 2.1% for the CPI Indicator (consensus 2.2%), driven by electricity. Beyond the noisiness of subsidy timing in electricity, key things to watch are the handful of market services prices measured in November, and whether New Dwellings sustains its recent step-down in inflation. Volatile international travel is also shaping up to be influential for the trimmed mean in Q4.
- **ANZ expect annual inflation in the monthly CPI indicator to lift to 2.3% y/y in November from 2.1% y/y in October. The ‘all groups excluding volatile items (fuel and fruit & veg) and holiday travel’ figure is forecast to edge up to 2.5% y/y from 2.4% y/y. During the month, ANZ expect the headline indicator to rise 0.5%m/m, a little above last November’s 0.3% m/m rise.
- The November data will have more information on services and non-tradables than the October reading and give us a better gauge of the critical Q4 CPI print scheduled for 29 January ahead of the next RBA Board meeting on 17-18 February.
