IRAN: Grossi Touts Progress w/Iran, Analysts Sceptical 'Snapback' Can Be Averted
IAEA Director Rafael Grossi said he hopes for a successful conclusion to nuclear discussions with Iran in the next 'few days'. The talks are aimed at a last-minute deal between Iran and the UN's nuclear watchdog to avert the imminent re-imposition of 'snapback' UN sanctions.
- In an opening statement to the IAEA Board of Governors' meeting this morning, Grossi said, “progress has been made in talks with Iran on full resumption of inspections, I hope that within the next few days it will be possible to come to a successful conclusion of discussions.”
- Grossi added: "There is still time. But not much... I can assure you that we are exercising our utmost efforts to come to a good outcome within the next few days, perhaps hours."
- Iran Nuances reports that Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson said: “The results of the discussions with the [IAEA] are currently under review by the relevant authorities in Tehran. We are waiting for a final conclusion to be reached, and based on that, we will announce what the next step will be.” The spokesperson added no decision has been taken yet on withdrawing from the nucelar non-proliferation treaty (NPT).
- While, the comments suggest a deal could be reached to avert ‘snapback’, Ali Vaez at the International Crisis Group notes that he, “can’t see a meaningful Iran-IAEA technical deal in the absence a political deal between Iran and the West.”
- Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said yesterday the impact of 'snapback' will be “mainly political,” suggesting its economic impact is being exaggerated.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS: (U5) Recovers With Treasuries
- RES 3: 96.501 - 76.4% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
- RES 2: 96.207 - 61.8% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
- RES 1: 95.960 - High Apr 7
- PRICE: 95.710 @ 14:34 BST Aug 8
- SUP 1: 95.415/95.300 - Low May 15 / Low Jan 14
- SUP 2: 95.275 - Low Nov 14 (cont) and a key support
- SUP 3: 94.707 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope
Aussie 10-yr futures received a boost from the US Treasury rally that followed a poor NFP print. This keeps Aussie 10-year futures toward the top end of the recent range. To the upside, next resistance is at 96.207, a Fibonacci retracement point. Next support undercuts at 95.420 (pierced), the Feb 13 low, ahead of 95.275, the Nov 14 low and a key support. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish condition.
SECURITY: Trump To Sign Trilateral Peace Accord With Armenia/Azerbaijan Shortly
US President Donald Trump is shortly due to sign a trilateral peace agreement with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev at the White House. LIVESTREAM The event will provide another opportunity for Trump to style himself as peacemaker, after touting success in brokering peace deals between Rwanda/Congo, Cambodia/Thailand, and India/Pakistan.
- The accord aims to resolve a decade-long dispute over the sovereignty of Nagorno-Karabakh - a breakaway Azerbaijani province that was under de facto Armenian control from the dissolution of the Soviet Union until a 2020 war.
- Trump described the meeting on Truth Social as a “historic peace summit,” noting that the US will also sign “Bilateral Agreements [to] fully unlock the potential of the South Caucasus Region.”
- White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly told reporters that Trump would sign deals with both Armenia and Azerbaijan on energy, technology, economic cooperation, border security, infrastructure and trade.
- A White House official said: "It's about the entire region, and [the leaders] know that that region is known to be safer and more prosperous with President Trump."
- Reuters reports that the US will have development rights to build transportation links in the strategic Zangezur Corridor, a mountainous stretch of Armenian territory between Azerbaijan and its Nakhichevan exclave.
- Politico notes: “But whether this is just a photo opportunity or a lasting end to a conflict that has undermined stability in a region dominated by Russia and Iran will depend on whether the US can address several key challenges.”
FED: Balance Sheet Runoff Continues At Steady $20B/Month Pace (2/2)
Fed asset holdings were little changed in the past week. SOMA runoff totaled $2.8B (composed of $4.2B less nominal Tsy holdings and $1.4B more TIPS), with emergency lending/liquidity facilities $0.7B lower.
- Over the last 4 weeks, the $20B/monthly expected QT pace was roughly adhered to: MBS fell $18B, with Treasury net holdings down around $2B (a fall in TIPS holdings offsetting a slight rise in nominals).
- Discount window usage accounted for the fall in lending facility usage this week; takeup is now down to $4.9B, down $1.3B in the last month and down from the 1-year high of $6.4B set in July which looks to have been a temporary blip higher.
