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May-13 19:35

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* Speaking at an economic event organised by El Financiero, Economy Minister Ebrard has said that ...

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AUDUSD TECHS: MA Set-Up Remains Bullish

Apr-13 19:30
  • RES 4: 0.7187 High Mar 11 and key resistance
  • RES 3: 0.7161 High Mar 12    
  • RES 2: 0.7103 76.4% retracement of the Mar 11 - 30 bear leg 
  • RES 1: 0.7095 High Apr 9
  • PRICE: 0.7061 @ 16:22 BST Apr 13
  • SUP 1: 0.6971 50-day EMA 
  • SUP 2: 0.6876 Low Apr 6
  • SUP 3: 0.6833 Low Mar 30 and a key support
  • SUP 4: 0.6727 Trendline support drawn from the Apr 9 ‘25 low  

A bullish theme in AUDUSD remains intact. The setup in the 20- and 50-day EMAs remains bullish - highlighting a dominant uptrend. An extension would open 0.7103, a Fibonacci retracement, ahead of key resistance and a bull trigger at 0.7187, the Mar 11 high. First support to watch lies at 0.6971, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the 50-day average would undermine the bull theme.   

US TSYS: Headline Sensitivity Continues, Hope Springs

Apr-13 19:15
  • Sentiment improved amid flurry of midday headlines regarding the Hormuz straight between the US and Iran, negotiations continuing even after the US blockade deadline had passed.
  • US President Trump has given unscheduled remarks to reporters at the White House, starting on no tax on tips before turning to Iran. Comments re thinking Iran will now agree on nuclear follows Axios reporting a little earlier that there are gaps between the US and Iran on enrichment but a compromise appears possible.
    • "TRUMP ON IRAN TALKS: THINK IRAN WILL NOW AGREE ON NUCLEAR
    • TRUMP: IRAN TALKS STICKING POINT WAS OVER NUCLEAR
    • TRUMP ON IRAN TALKS: CALLED BY OTHER SIDE, THEY WANT A DEAL" - bbg
  • TYM6 trades +4 at 111-07 vs. 111-08 high, important resistance at 111-19+, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to signal scope for a stronger recovery and open 111-31, a Fibonacci retracement.
  • Existing home sales fell sharply in March, from 4.13M to 3.98M, marking the joint-lowest since September 2024 and below the expected 4.05M. Current sales represent the equivalent of 4.1 months of supply, the highest ratio since November, suggesting loosening supply conditions. There was a decline in sales in each of the four US regions, though median sales prices (NSA) were up 1.4%.
  • Support for crude waned in the second half, WTI below $100/bbl to appr $97.70/bbl vs. $105.50/bbl overnight high.
  • Stocks are gaining: DJIA +.23%, SPX emini +.56%, Nasdaq +0.8%.
  • Bbg US$ index well off overnight high of 1204.23, to 1196.60 after the bell (-2.11).
  • LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday Data Calendar: ADP Weekly, PPI, Fed Speakers

EURJPY TECHS: Bull Cycle Intact

Apr-13 19:00
  • RES 4: 188.15 2.000 proj of the Mar 16 - 27 - 30 price swing  
  • RES 3: 187.49 1.764 proj of the Mar 16 - 27 - 30 price swing
  • RES 2: 187.00 Round number resistance
  • RES 1: 186.99 High Apr 13
  • PRICE: 186.98 @ 16:21 BST Apr 13
  • SUP 1: 185.99 Intraday low
  • SUP 2: 184.42 20-day EMA
  • SUP 3: 183.79 50-day EMA
  • SUP 4: 182.59 Low Mar 30 

Strong gains in EURJPY last week reinforce a bullish theme. The cross has cleared resistance at 186.36, the Feb 9 high, and pierced resistance at 186.87, the Jan 23 high and a key medium-term hurdle. Clearance of 186.87 here would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Note that price remains inside a bull channel drawn from the Feb 28 ‘25 low. Initial firm support to watch is 184.42, the 20-day EMA.