GOLD: Gold’s Decline Continues

• RES 4: 130.40 Low Feb 19               
• RES 3: 130.26 61.8% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 11 bear leg        
• RES 2: 130.00 Round number resistance  
• RES 1: 129.59 High Mar 31                     
• PRICE: 128.81 @ 05:36 BST Apr 1
• SUP 1: 128.47 Low Mar 28       
• SUP 2: 127.74 Low Mar 25 and a key short-term support             
• SUP 3: 127.20 Low Mar 17  
• SUP 4: 126.53 Low Mar 11 and the bear trigger   

Bund futures traded to a fresh short-term cycle high Monday before retreating. Recent gains are considered corrective, however, the breach of the 20-day EMA and a print above resistance at 129.41, the Jan 14 low, strengthens a bullish theme and opens the 130.00 handle and 130.26, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term support to watch lies at 127.74, the Mar 25 low. Clearance of this level would highlight a reversal.

JGB futures are holding weaker, -18 compared to the settlement levels.

• Outside of the previously outlined labour market and Tankan survey data, there hasn't been much by way of domestic drivers to flag.
• " The impact of the tariffs on Japan could range from minimal to severe, depending on whether the US focuses solely on agricultural tariffs or also includes value-added taxes and non-tariff barriers. Japan's response is unclear, but Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba may seek to win concessions by relaxing non-tariff barriers to US imports rather than planning retaliation." (per BBG)
• Cash US tsys are ~1bp richer in today's Asia-Pac session after yesterday's modest gains. Today's US calendar will be highlighted by JOLTS and ISM Mfg data.
• Cash JGBs are flat to 3bps cheaper, with a steepening bias, across benchmarks. The benchmark 10-year yield is 1.6bps higher at 1.506% versus the cycle high of 1.596%.
• Swap rates are little changed. Swap spreads are tighter.
• Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Monetary Base data alongside BoJ Rinban Operations covering 1-3-year and 25-years+ JGBs.

TYM5 is 111-17, +0-10 from closing levels in today's Asia-Pac session.

• According to MNI's technicals team, TYM5 remains well off the initial technical resistance of 111-22.5 (today's intraday high) - next resistance above at 112-01 (High Mar 4 and a bull trigger).
• Cash US tsys are slightly richer in today’s Asia-Pac session after small losses early.
• Month/quarter-end rebalancing flow tempered Monday morning's risk-off support ahead of Wednesday's US tariff deadline.
• From our latest US Treasury Deep Dive (Here) - the Treasury isn’t expected to raise the size of its coupon offerings until Q4 2025 at the earliest, with consensus on such a shift moving following the February refunding announcement to Nov 2025/early 2026, from Aug/Nov 2025 prior.
• Today’s US calendar will be highlighted by JOLTS and ISM Mfg data.