Sky News reports that "The UK will be forced to agree this month to increase defence spending to 3.5% of national income within a decade as part of a NATO push to rearm and keep the US on side." This comes just a day after PM Sir Keir Starmer's gov't outlined its Strategic Defence Review, which committed to an increase to 3% of GDP by 2034.
- The 3.5% target in terms of hardline military spending (troops, ammunition, tanks, planes etc.) is likely to be joined by another amounting to 1.5% of GDP on military-related spending, such as critical infrastructure, anti-terrorism or cybersecurity. This has been pushed by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, backed by other members, and is likely to be adopted at the NATO summit at the end of the month as an official target by 2032. Sky News reports its source as saying the UK would target this by 2035.
- The gov't now sits in a vulnerable position on several fronts:
- While the gov't presented the SDR as a 'root and branch' review of the UK's military capabilities, it will now be seen as already insufficient just a day after publication.
- Those on the left of Starmer's party could voice concerns about further increases in military spending at a time when the gov't is looking to curtail welfare payments.
- The potential adjustment risks the UK, historically seeing itself as the senior-most European nation in NATO, being viewed as lacking commitment to bolstering the continent's defence.
- Markets, already focusing on Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves' 11 June spending review announcement, could show a reaction to further unfunded pledges on defence spending without associated commitments to raising revenue or making savings elsewhere.