COMMODITIES: Gold Consolidating at Higher Levels

Bond futures move back towards session lows (TY registers a fresh session low).

• Cross-market cues seemingly remain at the fore as crude oil & Euro Stoxx futures move to fresh session highs.
• Crude has shaken off the latest round of speculation OPEC+ production increases, while broader macro headline flow remains relatively limited.
• Little of note on the macro calendar today.
• Trump’s letters surrounding tariff rates (due to be sent at 12:00 NY today) garner much of the interest, although the ongoing fluidity (U.S. willingness to cut deals/moderate tariffs in the past) when it comes to the global tariff backdrop continues to limit visibility on the matter.

• The USD's bounce Monday is providing some relief for the USD Index, which now sits 1% above last week's cycle lows to put the currency on a surer footing. As a result, the major pairs are seeing pressure toward the the post-NFP lows - with EUR/USD and GBP/USD challenging 1.1718 and 1.3586 respectively.
• Rates markets are endorsing USD gains here: the US curve is steeper as the global long-end continues to underperform. This backdrop, allied with any deterioration in trade relations between the US and the RoW remains a key market focus, particularly with the fluidity around Trump's approach to tariffs and the suite of reciprocal trade tariff deadlines looming over markets this summer.
• A correction lower through 1.3563 would be consequential for GBP/USD, and raise the likelihood of a test on the 50-dma support in the near-term. This level has held well and helped define the rally over the course of 2025 - crossing at 1.3477 today. In trend terms, we note that the 50-dma now trades with the largest % premium over the 200-dma since the bounce off lows in 2009. The premium currently sits at ~4.2% vs. the 2009 peak of ~8.2%, mid-Global Financial Crisis. 

• MNI: EUROZONE MAY RETAIL SALES -0.7% M/M, +1.8% Y/Y