COMMODITIES: Gold Consolidating at Higher Levels
Aug-06 09:24
Gold benefited from the soft NFP print on Friday, returning prices toward the top-end of the recent range. This supports the view that short-term weakness is corrective - for now - and a bull cycle that started Jun 30 remains intact. WTI futures fell for a fourth consecutive session into the Tuesday close, keeping S/T momentum pointed lower. Support to watch remains the 50-day EMA, at $65.48 - a level pierced yesterday. A clear break would expose $58.17, the May 30 low.
- WTI Crude up $0.99 or +1.52% at $66.24
- Natural Gas down $0.06 or -1.89% at $2.954
- Gold spot down $14.97 or -0.44% at $3366.25
- Copper up $1.95 or +0.44% at $440.75
- Silver down $0.01 or -0.03% at $37.8124
- Platinum up $6.26 or +0.47% at $1330.33
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CROSS ASSET: Headlines Light, Cross-Asset Impetus Dominates
Jul-07 09:22
Bond futures move back towards session lows (TY registers a fresh session low).
- Cross-market cues seemingly remain at the fore as crude oil & Euro Stoxx futures move to fresh session highs.
- Crude has shaken off the latest round of speculation OPEC+ production increases, while broader macro headline flow remains relatively limited.
- Little of note on the macro calendar today.
- Trump’s letters surrounding tariff rates (due to be sent at 12:00 NY today) garner much of the interest, although the ongoing fluidity (U.S. willingness to cut deals/moderate tariffs in the past) when it comes to the global tariff backdrop continues to limit visibility on the matter.
GBP: USD Bounce Has Major Pairs Testing Key Levels
Jul-07 09:05
- The USD's bounce Monday is providing some relief for the USD Index, which now sits 1% above last week's cycle lows to put the currency on a surer footing. As a result, the major pairs are seeing pressure toward the the post-NFP lows - with EUR/USD and GBP/USD challenging 1.1718 and 1.3586 respectively.
- Rates markets are endorsing USD gains here: the US curve is steeper as the global long-end continues to underperform. This backdrop, allied with any deterioration in trade relations between the US and the RoW remains a key market focus, particularly with the fluidity around Trump's approach to tariffs and the suite of reciprocal trade tariff deadlines looming over markets this summer.
- A correction lower through 1.3563 would be consequential for GBP/USD, and raise the likelihood of a test on the 50-dma support in the near-term. This level has held well and helped define the rally over the course of 2025 - crossing at 1.3477 today. In trend terms, we note that the 50-dma now trades with the largest % premium over the 200-dma since the bounce off lows in 2009. The premium currently sits at ~4.2% vs. the 2009 peak of ~8.2%, mid-Global Financial Crisis.
MNI: EUROZONE MAY RETAIL SALES -0.7% M/M, +1.8% Y/Y
Jul-07 09:00
- MNI: EUROZONE MAY RETAIL SALES -0.7% M/M, +1.8% Y/Y
