OIL PRODUCTS: Global Naphtha Cracks Rise But Upside Limited: Kpler
Feb-20 13:42
Naphtha cracks rose globally on the week as blending demand begins to pick up and US and EU refinery maintenance limits supply, Kpler said.
- However, the reported ramp-up of Dangote to full rates by H2 March is helping to prevent further upside, combined with high global naphtha stocks.
- The European market is also seeing inland supply constraints due to ongoing refinery disruptions in Germany amid outages at Bayernoil’s Vohnburg-Neustadt and Miro’s Karlsruhe, Kpler added.
- US ethylene prices are retreating as crackers restart after colder weather disruption. This will add downside to West of Suez cracking margins in the near term as exports from the US rise.
- Looking at East of Suez, weak demand and limited refinery maintenance will pressure near-term cracks until standalone crackers ramp up and refinery maintenance accelerates in March, Kpler added.
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CANADA: GoC Yields Soften On CAD CPI But USDCAD Unchanged
Jan-21 13:40
- GoC yields have fallen 2bps through 2-10Y tenors on the December CPI report (vs 1-1.5bps for Tsys) but USDCAD sees very little net impact.
- The Can-US 2Y yield differential at -138bps would be its lowest close this cycle at lows since the late 1990s.
- BoC-dated OIS meanwhile pushes a little closer to fully supporting a 25bp cut from the BoC next week, with ~21bp priced vs ~19bp pre-release.
- Main outturns very close to median expectations which was impressive considering the wide range of analyst views on the back of uncertainty over the impact from the temporary GST/HST tax holiday.
- Headline CPI came in at 1.8% Y/Y (BBG median 1.9, our survey of analysts 1.8) in a range that spanned from 1.2-2.1% Y/Y.
- The average of the BoC's preferred median and trim CPI was as expected at 2.45% Y/Y, averaging 2.6% in Q4 to confirm a beat of the 2.3% the BoC had forecast back in October. It will provide new forecasts next week.
MNI: CANADA DEC CPI INFLATION -0.4% M/M, +1.8% YY
Jan-21 13:38
- MNI: CANADA DEC CPI INFLATION -0.4% M/M, +1.8% YY
PORTUGAL AUCTION PREVIEW: On offer tomorrow
Jan-21 13:36
Portugal has announced it will be looking to buy back the 2.875% Oct-25 OT at a reverse auction tomorrow, January 22. "Bids presentation from 10h00 to 10h30 Lisbon time (11h00 to 11h30 CET)"
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