POWER: German Front Month Edges Higher on Emissions
May-23 07:18
The German front-month power contract is edging higher amid gains in EU ETS, with the contract up slightly on the week. The German spot power index is seen to drop amid lower demand, but a fall in wind output could limit losses.
- Germany Base Power JUN 25 up 0.2% at 75.33 EUR/MWh
- EUA DEC 25 up 0.9% at 72.79 EUR/MT
- TTF Gas JUN 25 down 0.1% at 36.31 EUR/MWh
- European gas is flat on Friday following volatility on Thursday as the market assesses outages and maintenance outlooks. TTF is up on a weekly basis for a fourth straight week.
- EUAs Dec25 are edging up on the day, with small gains in EU gas supporting carbon.
- Correlation between EU ETS front-year contract and the German front-month power for the 6-month daily period was at 0.8 as of Friday. The correlation between German front-month power and TTF front-month over the same period was at 0.63 on Friday.
- The latest two-week ECMWF weather forecast for Dusseldorf suggests mean temperatures have been revised higher for most days over 23-28 May and are expected to reach as high as around 22C on 5 June.
- Mean temperatures in Dusseldorf are forecast to rise to 11.6C on Saturday, from 10.6C on Friday but below the seasonal average of 14.9C.
- Wind output in Germany is forecast to decline to 14.43GW during base load on Saturday, from 17.4GW on Friday. Solar PV output is forecast at 24.25GW during peak load on Saturday, unchanged from 24.04GW on Friday, according to SpotRenewables.
- German wind output for the next seven days (24-30 May) has been revised lower over 27-29 May by between 1.95-7.2GW.
- Power demand in Germany is forecast to drop to 46.49GW on Saturday, from 53.9GW on Friday, Bloomberg data showed.
- Germany’s hydro balance forecast was revised up to 16GWh as of 6 June, compared with -30GWh a day earlier, Bloomberg data showed.
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MNI: FRANCE FLASH APRIL MANUF PMI 48.2 (FCAST 47.9, MAR 48.5)
Apr-23 07:15
- MNI: FRANCE FLASH APRIL MANUF PMI 48.2 (FCAST 47.9, MAR 48.5)
- FRANCE FLASH APRIL SERVICES PMI 46.8 (FCAST 47.6, MAR 47.9)
GILTS: Aggressive Twist Flattening In Light Of Remit
Apr-23 07:13
Curve twist flattens in light of the modest mark lower in the DMO’s gilt issuance remit ahead of the open (twisting driven by short and unallocated buckets seeing an increase in size, as did T-bill issuance, while longs saw a reduction. See previous bullets for greater details).
- Yields 3bp higher to 11bp lower.
- Futures through both yesterday’s highs and initial resistance (92.63), peaking at 92.85 so far.
- Next resistance at 93.00, followed by a Fibonacci retracement (93.44).
- Outperformance vs. Bunds noted in light of the remit, with the 10-Year spread 6bp narrower at 204bp.
- Potential that this morning’s rally is being exacerbated by the unwind of some overnight hedges that looked for an increase in gilt remit size.
- Flash PMIs headline the UK data calendar today, with BoE speak due from Pill (11:30 BST), Bailey (18:15 BST) & Breeden (19:00 BST) due throughout the day.
EGB SYNDICATION: Austria Triple Tranche Tap: Guidance
Apr-23 07:09
2.50% Oct-29 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A3EPP2)
- Guidance: EUR Benchmark Tap MS+20 Area
3.20% Jul-39 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A3D3Q8)
- Guidance: EUR Benchmark Tap MS+67 Area
3.15% Oct-53 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A33SK7)
- Guidance: EUR Benchmark Tap MS+98 Area
For all:
- Settlement: April 30, 2025
- Bookrunners: Barclays (B&D), Citi, DB, GS, JPM, RBI
- Timing: May price today
(Details as per BBG)
