US OUTLOOK/OPINION: GDPNow Q2 Residential Investment Estimate Dims Further
Jul-18 14:36
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate for Q2 GDP edged very slightly lower in its July 18 update (to 2.3...
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EUROZONE DATA: CA Surplus Pulls Back In April; Equity and Debt Outflows Noted
Jun-18 14:32
The Eurozone seasonally adjusted current account surplus was E19.8bln in April, down from E50.9bln in March. This was the lowest one-month SA surplus since May 2023, with net goods trade pulling back after tariff-related front-running dominated flows in Q1.
- As foreshadowed in the April merchandise trade data, the goods surplus fell to E29.6bln (vs E43.5bln prior). However, the services (E6.6bln vs E12.8bln prior), primary income (-E0.4bln vs E7.4bln prior) and secondary income (-E16.0bln vs -E12.8bln prior) balances also pulled the overall current account surplus lower.
- On a 12m rolling basis to GDP, the current account surplus was 2.8% (from 2.9% in March).
- In the financial account, there was a notable E59.9bln portfolio investment outflow. This comprised E10.0bln of equity outflows and E49.9bln of debt outflows.
- Eurozone investors net sold E2.2bln of foreign equity assets in April (vs E40.4bln of net sales in March), while foreign investors net sold E12.2bln of Eurozone equity assets. A reminder that US equity markets staged an impressive recovery from the April 8 lows after President Trump backtracked on the initial Liberation Day tariff announcement. This led to relative S&P outperformance versus the Eurostoxx 50.
- Zooming out, net portfolio investment was 0.0% of GDP on a 12-month rolling basis in April, after posting a 0.6% net inflow in March.
- Direct investment inflows were E13.5bln in April (vs a E35.0bln outflow in March). However, this component still saw 1.0% GDP of net outflows on a 12-month rolling basis (vs 1.4% in March).
GILT AUCTION PREVIEW: On offer next week
Jun-18 14:30
The DMO has announced it will be looking to sell GBP3.25bln of the 4.375% Jan-40 Gilt (ISIN: GB00BQC82D08) at its auction next Wednesday, June 25.
MNI: US EIA: CRUDE OIL STOCKS EX SPR -11.47M TO 420.9M JUN 13 WK
Jun-18 14:30
- US EIA: CRUDE OIL STOCKS EX SPR -11.47M TO 420.9M JUN 13 WK
- US EIA: DISTILLATE STOCKS +0.51M TO 109.4M IN JUN 13 WK
- US EIA: GASOLINE STOCKS +0.21M TO 230.0M IN JUN 13 WK
- US EIA: CUSHING STOCKS -1M TO 22.7M BARRELS IN JUN 13 WK
- US EIA: SPR +0.23M TO 402.3M BARRELS IN JUN 13 WK
- US EIA: REFINERY UTILIZATION WEEK CHANGE -1.1% TO 93.2% IN JUN 13 WK
