NATGAS: Funds Net TTF Longs Still High Despite Another Decline
Dec-18 09:42
GAS POSITIONING - Investment funds net long positioning in ICE TTF futures fell for a second week in the week to Dec. 13 but remain strong after rising to a record high in November.
- European gas markets are focused on the uncertainty surrounding the future of pipeline gas supplies transit via Ukraine after seeing bearish pressure due to warmer, windier weather and a return to near normal storage withdrawals.
- Investment Firm net position fell by 12.73m to -208.82m
- Investment Funds net position fell by 22.36m to +245.62m
- Commercial Undertaking net position rose by 41.95m to -36.80m
Source: Bloomberg
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EGBS: Mixed Performance Amid Hawkish ECB Repricing, Idiosyncratic Factors
Nov-18 09:37
10-year EGB spreads to Bunds are mixed this morning, with Irish bonds outperforming on positive Friday ratings action and DSL spreads widening amid an uptick in political uncertainty.
- The 10-year IRISH/Bund spread is ~1bp tighter at 29.5bps, aided by S&P’s Positive outlook revision on Friday after hours (rating affirmed at AA). S&P referenced Ireland’s “extraordinary fiscal overperformance” as rationale for the outlook upgrade.
- Danske Bank “remain positive on Irish government bonds despite the solid performance in 2024 versus peers”, seeing “room for more tightening” to Bunds beyond current levels.
- Meanwhile, 10-year DSL spreads to Bunds are 2.5bps wider at 22.5bps, even as the Dutch coalition avoided collapse following crisis talks last Friday (see here).
- 10-year peripheral (ex-Ireland) and OAT spreads to Bunds are biased a little wider, with ECB-dated OIS seeing light hawkish repricing this morning (141bps of easing priced through Dec’25 vs ~145bps at Friday’s close).
- Eurozone September trade balance data is due at 1000GMT/1100CET, with more focus on today’s ECB Executive Board speakers this afternoon (Lane and Lagarde).
FOREX: EUR Picks Up on Better Participation, Yields Prove Supportive
Nov-18 09:36
- Pick up in volumes behind the recovery in EUR here, with over 2k contracts trading inside two minutes at 0922GMT across EUR futures, for a cash equivalent of ~$300mln and the best activity for the day so far.
- The resultant EUR/GBP highs puts the cross at the best level since Nov06, which narrows the gap with 0.8448, a break above which would resume the upleg posted off multi-year range-defining support at the ~0.83 handle.
- Moves likely partially led by rates, as the US 10y yield dips back toward the day's lower levels (albeit still well clear of Friday lows, but moving in the right direction) - but the bounce off support at the 162.26 50-dma in EUR/JPY will be compounding the effect, earmarking 165.04 as the next upside level.
CROSS ASSET: US Govies outperform Europe
Nov-18 09:30
- US Bonds and the STIRs strip (SFR) outperforms Europe this morning, and since Tnotes (TYZ4) Is back at the intraday high, the spread versus the German 10yr Bund, is tighter, heading back down towards 205bps, after it found good resistance at the 210bps mark last week.
- The move in Treasury has been more gradual with demand emerging some 30 minutes ago, Initial resistance in TYZ4 is at 109.25.
- USDJPY is finding some offers following the tick higher in US Bonds futures, lower Yield.
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