USDCAD TECHS: Fresh S/T Cycle Low

• RES 4: 0.7223 High May 15
• RES 3: 0.7149/7201 High Jun 4 / High May 29
• RES 2: 0.7088 High Jun 15 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 0.6979/0.7019 Low Jun 11 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.6918 @ 20:59 BST Jul 13
• SUP 1: 0.6865 Low Jun 30 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.6833 Low Mar 30 and a key support
• SUP 3: 0.6757 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 ‘25 - May 6 bull cyle
• SUP 4: 0.6707 High Sep 17 2025 

A bear cycle in AUDUSD remains intact and - for now - recent S/T gains are considered corrective. Price has recently pierced a key support marked by the base of a bull channel drawn from the Apr ‘25 low - currently at 0.6943. A clear channel breakout would highlight a stronger reversal and open 0.6833, the Mar 30 low and a key support. Key short-term resistance is 0.7088, the Jun 15 high. Initial resistance is at 0.6979, the Jun low.

• RES 3: 95.636 - 76.4% retracement Oct’ 25 - Jan’ 26 downleg (cont)
• RES 2: 95.472 - 61.8% retracement Oct’ 25 - Mar’ 26 downleg (cont)
• RES 1: 95.270/95.425 - High Jun 26 / High Mar 2 (cont)
• PRICE: 95.065 @ 20:25 BST Jul 13
• SUP 1: 94.985 - Low Jun 09
• SUP 2: 94.780 - Low Mar 23 / 30 low (cont) and a key M/T support
• SUP 3: 94.664 - 76.4% retracement of the 2008 - 2020 rally 

Recent weakness in Aussie 10-yr futures appears corrective and a bullish trend sequence remains intact. However, the recent pullback does signal scope for a deeper retracement. The next support to watch is 94.985, the Jun 9 low. A break would open 94.780, the Mar 23 / 30 low on the continuation chart and a key medium-term support. For bulls, the short-term bull trigger is 95.270, the Jun 26 high.

• The Cleveland Fed nowcast has headline CPI at -0.06% M/M in June for a little less disinflation than the median unrounded analyst estimate of -0.20% we’ve seen.
• Core CPI meanwhile is seen at 0.23% M/M, in the ballpark of the 0.21% median analyst, having returned to some recently accurate tracking with only a 2bp overshoot in May (the 0.17pp undershoot in April possibly failed to catch the renal inflation component linked to the government shutdown).