POWER: French Spot Power to Rise on Wind, Demand
Mar-12 08:15
French spot power is seen to increase with forecasts for lower wind and higher demand as cooler temperatures are lifting heating demand. French front-month power is seen to rise, once trading, with cooler weather expected at the start of April.
- France Base Power APR 25 closed up 0.3% at 55.04 EUR/MWh on 11 March.
- EUA DEC 25 down 0.7% at 67.73 EUR/MT
- TTF Gas APR 25 down 0.2% at 42.63 EUR/MWh
- Nuclear availability in France was stable at 75% of capacity as of Wednesday morning, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
- French nuclear generation is forecast at 47.61GWh on Thursday, up from 46.57GWh on Wednesday, Reuters data showed.
- The latest two-week ECMWF weather forecast for Paris suggests mean temperatures will remain below the seasonal normal until 18 March, after which temperatures will rise back above normal.
- Mean temperatures in Paris are forecast to fall to 4.8C on Thursday, down from 5.6C on Wednesday and below the seasonal normal of 7.6C.
- Power demand in France is forecast to increase to 58.89GW on Thursday, up from 56.55GW on Wednesday according to Bloomberg.
- Wind output in France is forecast to decline to 2.77GW during base load on Thursday, down from 2.52GW on Wednesday. Solar PV output is forecast to rise to 4.81GW during peak load on Thursday, up from 4.25GW on Wednesday according to SpotRenewables. Wind output in France is forecast to rise to load factors up to 59% late next week.
- Residual load in France is forecast to rise to 51.7GWh/h on Thursday, up from 50.99GWh/h on Wednesday according to Reuters.
- France’s hydro balance has been revised higher on the day to end at -3.14TWh on 26 March, compared with -3.28TWh a day earlier according to Bloomberg.
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BUNDS: /SWAPS: Long End ASWs Remain Under Pressure
Feb-10 08:12
The long end of the ASW spread curve continues to trade heavily, both in relative terms against Schatz and outright.
- Buxl ASW vs. 3-month Euribor registered a fresh cycle closing low on Friday, with increased free float and German issuance/fiscal risks continuing to weigh.
- These fundamental sources of pressure mean that relief episodes in long swap spreads remains contained, even when bonds manage to rally in outright trade.
- Meanwhile, repo/collateral dynamics have seemingly been binding in the front end of the ASW curve, preventing Schatz spread tightening towards ’24 lows.
- Still, J.P.Morgan go against the trend and recommend a tactical Bund swap spread paid position against the Schatz equivalent, given what they deem to be “attractive valuations.” They also suggest that their “2s/10s German cash bond curve flattening bias is also supportive of a steeper swap spread curve.”
SILVER TECHS: Bullish Trend Condition
Feb-10 08:12
- RES 4: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $33.450 - 76.4% of the Oct 23 - Dec 19 ‘24 bear leg
- RES 2: $33.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $32.652 - High Feb 7
- PRICE: $32.160 @ 08:11 GMT Feb 10
- SUP 1: $30.814 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: $29.704 - Low Jan 27
- SUP 3: $28.748 - Low Dec 19 and bear trigger
- SUP 4: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
Silver traded higher last week. Key resistance at $32.338, the Dec 12 high, has been pierced. Clearance of this hurdle would highlight a stronger reversal and cancel a recent bearish theme. This would open the $33.00 handle and expose $33.450, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm support lies at $30.814, the 50-day EMA and a pivot level. A clear break of the EMA would reinstate the recent bearish theme.
CROSS ASSET: Yen sees broader lows, Gold edges towards $2,900.00
Feb-10 08:05
- There's broader selling going through against the Yen, testing session low with the EUR, AUD, GBP and just short of the intraday low with the Dollar.
- Yields aren't moving, Risk on Tone could at play, although not seeing similar moves with the likes of the Swissy.
- The resistance in USDJPY is seen much further out, up to 152.89 High Jan 6.
- Gold continues to firm higher, now just $5 short of the $2,900.00 level, although most Desks will be eyeing the big Psychological $3000.00 level.
- In between these two levels, resistance is seen at $2917.5 - 1.764 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing, followed by $2962.2 - 2.00 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing.
