POWER: French Spot Power to Decline on Wind
The French day-ahead base load on the Epex Spot is expected to fall with forecasts suggesting significantly higher wind output, despite a slight increase in demand.
- France Base Power JAN 25 closed up 7% at 106.86 EUR/MWh on 27 Dec.
- EUA DEC 25 down 0.9% at 70.95 EUR/MT
- TTF Gas JAN 25 down 0.3% at 47.585 EUR/MWh
- Nuclear availability in France decreased to 81% of capacity as of Monday morning, down from 84% on Friday, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
- The 1.33GW Flamanville 2 nuclear reactor halted on Sunday for around 36h until Monday 23:00CET in an unplanned outage.
- The unplanned outage at 1.495GW Civaux 1 has been extended by three days until 31 December 23:00CET.
- The latest 6-10 day ECMWF weather forecast for Paris suggested mean temperatures will rise above normal at the start of January, before falling below the average on 3-4 January, after which temperatures will be above normal until 10 January. At the end of the forecast period, mean temperatures will fall back below the average.
- Mean temperatures in Paris are forecast to be broadly stable on the day at 3.4C on Tuesday, below the seasonal average of 4.8C.
- Power demand in France is forecast to fall to rise to 65.47GW on Tuesday, up from 63.39GW forecasted for Monday according to Bloomberg.
- Wind output in France is forecast to rise sharply on Tuesday to 4.71GW during base load, up from 1.21GW forecasted for Monday according to SpotRenewables.
- Residual load in France is forecast to decrease to 57.26GWh/h on Tuesday, down from 59.82GWh/h on Monday according to Reuters.
- France’s hydro balance has been revised down from Friday’s forecast to end at -1.27TWh on 13 January.
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AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS: (Z4) Bounce Mode
- RES 3: 96.380 - High Mar 21 2023
- RES 2: 97.190 - High May 5 2023
- RES 1: 96.730/932 - High Sep 17 / 76.4% of Mar-Nov ‘23 bear leg
- PRICE: 96.090 @ 15:41 GMT Nov 29
- SUP 1: 95.760 - Low Nov 13
- SUP 2: 95.750 - Low 27 Nov ‘23
- SUP 3: 95.480 - Low Jan 11 2023 and a major support
Having hit a fresh pullback low at 95.760 across the global rates sell-off in recent weeks, the market found bottom and has staged a shallow bounce above the 96.00 handle. Nonetheless, recent weakness confirms the downside bias, with support undercutting at 95.750 below ahead of major support of 95.480. For any corrective recovery to take hold, markets need to retake the 96.00 handle on a closing basis.
USDCAD TECHS: Pullback Appears Corrective
- RES 4: 1.4287 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4246 2.00 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4196 1.764 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4078/4178 High Nov 27 / 26 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.4005 @ 16:09 GMT Nov 29
- SUP 1: 1.3965/28 20-day EMA / Low Nov 25 and a key support
- SUP 2: 1.3858 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3822 Low Nov 6
- SUP 4: 1.3747 Low Oct 17
Trend conditions in USDCAD remain bullish and Tuesday’s fresh cycle reinforced this theme. The move higher confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend and marked an extension of the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 1.4196 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term support has been defined at 1.3928, the Nov 25 low. For now, the latest pullback appears corrective.
AUDUSD TECHS: Corrective Bounce
- RES 4: 0.6762 High Oct 9
- RES 3: 0.6733 High Oct 13
- RES 2: 0.6604/88 50-day EMA / High Nov 7 and a reversal trigger
- RES 1: 0.6534/50 20-day EMA / High Nov 25
- PRICE: 0.6512 @ 16:03 GMT Nov 29
- SUP 1: 0.6434 Low Nov 26
- SUP 3: 0.6400 Round number support
- SUP 3: 0.6350 Low Aug 5 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.6339 Low Nov 10 2023
A bearish theme in AUDUSD remains intact. The fresh cycle low on Tuesday marks an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Scope is seen for a move towards 0.6350, the Aug 5 low and the next key support. The pair has recovered from its recent lows - a correction. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6534, the 20-day EMA.
