CZECHIA: Fiala Warns Against "Fearmongers" As Czechia Heads Into Election Year
Dec-27 08:43
- Prime Minister Petr Fiala used his traditional Christmas address to warn that next year will determine whether Czechia will take the path of "a proud European country and an active civil society" or one where "people give up responsibility for their lives and hand it over to a leader." He defended the record of his government but admitted that "we are not done yet." As a reminder, Czechia will hold a parliamentary election no later than in October 2025. The opposition party ANO leads in opinion polls but it is unclear if it could govern alone.
- E15 circulated a piece noting that the government's pension reform will not solve systemic problems caused by deteriorating demographic trends. The piece quotes a report from the Czech Fiscal Council, which says that the impact of an increase in the fertility rate (currently at 1.45 children/woman) would only be fully reflected after 2060.
- Czechia will report November money supply data on December 31. Until then, the local data docket is empty.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
GILTS: Watching Europe
Nov-27 08:41
Gilts initially firmed alongside core global FI peers as French political and fiscal risks asserted themselves, before hawkish commentary from ECB Executive Board member Schnabel weighed.
- Futures (H5) breached initial resistance at the Monday high (95.42), peaking at 95.57 before fading to 95.25.
- Recovery from lows then seen, contract last +47 on the day at 95.40.
- Zooming out, the trend condition in Gilt futures remains bearish, however, a corrective cycle is in play and this week’s climb reinforces current bullish conditions.
- Initial resistance at today’s high (95.57), with initial support at Monday’s low (94.66).
- Yields 3-4bp lower across the curve.
- SONIA futures off early highs, but still flat to +5.0.
- Late Tuesday FT interview with BoE’s Lombardelli wasn’t a market mover.
- Little of note on the UK calendar today, will leave participants focused on macro/cross-market inputs.
BONDS: US and UK Roll pace update
Nov-27 08:37
ROLL PACE UPDATE: March 2025 is now front for US and UK.
- Ultra 30: 94%.
- TBond: 89%.
- Ultra 10: 92%.
- TYA: 93%.
- FVA: 95%.
- TUA: 94%.
- Gilt: 94%.
BOBL TECHS: (Z4) Trades Through Resistance
Nov-27 08:32
- RES 4: 120.190 High Oct 3
- RES 3: 119.949 76.4% retracement of the Oct 1 - 31 bear leg
- RES 2: 119.620 High Oct 18
- RES 1: 119.600 Intraday high
- PRICE: 119.540 @ 08:17 GMT Nov 27
- SUP 1: 118.887/779 50- and 20-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 118.150 Low Nov 14
- SUP 3: 118.680 Low Oct 31 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 117.570 2.00 proj of the Oct 18 - 22 - 24
Recent gains in Bobl futures still appear corrective, however, the continued appreciation in price highlights an extension of this cycle. The contract has breached both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and today’s move higher has resulted in a print above 119.519, 61.8% of the Oct 1 - 31 bear leg. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bullish theme and open 119.949, the 76.4% retracement point. Initial firm support lies at 118.779, the 20-day EMA.
