US: FED Reverse Repo Operation

Jul-29 19:03

NY Fed reverse repo usage climbs to $2,300.200B w/ 111 counterparties vs. $2,239.883B prior session. Record high still stands at $2,329.743B from Thursday June 30.

NY Federal Reserve/MNI

Historical bullets

EURJPY TECHS: Monitoring The 20-Day EMA

Jun-29 19:00
  • RES 4: 146.74 High Dec 30, 2014
  • RES 3: 145.00/58 Round number resistance / High Dec 31 2014
  • RES 2: 144.58 0.764 proj of Mar 7 - 28 - Apr 5 swing
  • RES 1: 144.28 High Jun 28
  • PRICE: 142.95 @ 16:52 BST Jun 29
  • SUP 1: 141.37 20-day EMA
  • SUP 2: 139.45 Low Jun 17
  • SUP 3: 138.97/37.85 50-day EMA / Low Jun 16 and key support
  • SUP 4: 136.25 Low May 30

EURJPY traded higher Tuesday, delivering a fresh cycle high of 144.28. This high print has cancelled a recent 3-day candle pattern - evening star reversal. This reinforces the uptrend and a continuation higher would open 144.58, a Fibonacci projection. Key S/T support is at 141.37, the 20-day EMA. The cross has pulled back from yesterday’s high, a break of the 20-day EMA is required to once again highlight a potential top and short-term reversal.

US: Late Corporate Credit Update: Heating Up Again

Jun-29 18:52

Investment-grade corporate credit risk holding mildly high in late FI trade, upper half of narrow range as stocks recede amid thin participation: SPX eminis trading -9.25 (-0.24%) at 3816.75; DJIA +65.12 (0.21%) at 31010.79; Nasdaq -39 (-0.3%) at 11142.58.

  • Investment grade risk measured by Markit's CDXIG5 index at 100.174 (+0.854); CDXHY5 high yield index at 97.132 (-0.418).
  • Outperforming credit sectors (tighter or least wide): Health Care and Industrials sectors both (+0.9) followed by Technology and Utilities (+1.1).
  • Lagging sectors (wider or least narrow): Materials (+3.1), Consumer Discretionary and subordinated Financials both +2.2.

CANADA: Skittish USDCAD With Important Data Tomorrow

Jun-29 18:37
  • USDCAD has seen a volatile session to ultimately sit +0.1% at 1.2888, moving higher with Powell's participation on the ECB panel, with CAD again outperforming high beta majors.
  • Widening front-end Can-US yield differentials have helped keep some downward pressure on USDCAD today but a REER almost completely in line with its historical average and recently trimmed net spec positions gives the pair room to run in either direction.
  • Technicals have pointed to a short-term bullish reversal and initial resistance is close at 1.2917 (Jun 27 high), clearance of which could open a bull trigger at 1.3017 (Jun 23 high). As noted earlier, CIBC look for a sustained push above 1.30.
  • Going against that in the very short-term is sizeable option expiry for tomorrow’s cut-off with 1.525B at 1.2750 although that could be too far away to offer much traction.
  • Both Canadian GDP and US personal/incomes and core PCE inflation will be important drivers in the near-term.