US DATA: Factory Orders End Q2 On Weak Note, But Durables A Strong Point
June factory orders data concluded Q2 on a weak note, though manufacturing activity was strong in the quarter as a whole. The -0.3% M/M outturn was well below the +0.2% consensus and only partially offset by an upward revision to May (to -1.1% from -1.3%); ex-transportation largely mirrored those at -0.4% M/M (vs +0.4% consensus, +2.0% prior rev from 1.9%).
- On the other hand, final core durable goods orders were better than previously estimated, at +1.2% M/M (upward rev from +0.9%) amid broader revisions across durable/capital goods readings vs the preliminary report.
- This was a second consecutive decline for manufacturing orders, but a strong April means the 3M/3M annualized rate of growth for the quarter was 25%, while for core orders, that was 18%. Both were the strongest since Q1 2021, and the rise in shipments of 11% will be positive from a Q2 GDP estimate perspective (equipment investment rose 15.2% Q/Q SAAR in the quarter).
- As the divergence between the above figures indicates, the overall factory orders weakness was driven by nondurables which fell 1.2% M/M. That category is about half of total manufacturing orders, though more attention tends to be paid to durables as an indicator of growth in business fixed investment.
- And the durables orders figure may be underselling capex growth, as it excludes data from the red-hot semiconductor sector.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
US: President Trump To Deliver Remarks Shortly
US President Donald Trump is shortly due to deliver remarks at an event to mark America's 250th birthday at Mount Rushmore, South Dakota. LIVESTREAM
JGB TECHS: (U6) Downside Momentum Intact
- RES 3: 133.15 - High Feb 24 ‘26
- RES 2: 131.06 - 61.8% retracement of the Feb - May Bear Leg
- RES 1: 129.01 - 50-dma (cont)
- PRICE: 127.10 @ 14:51 BST Jul 03
- SUP 1: 126.85 - Low Jul 02
- SUP 2: 126.19 - 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 3: 125.70 - Low Feb 1999
Bearish pressure has eased, but the broader theme remains negative in JGB futures. Through the latest sell-off, the price printed through the lower 1.0% 10-dma envelope on the continuation contract, signalling the strength of downside pressure. This widens the gap with the 50-dma, a break above which is needed to highlight a stronger short-term reversal and signal scope for any recovery. The 50-dma is currently at 129.01. A strong bull rally would open 131.80, a Fibonacci retracement.
USDCAD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 1.4328 1.764 proj of the Mar 9 - 31 - May 1 price swing
- RES 3: 1.4292 61.8% Retracement Feb’25 - Jan’26 downleg
- RES 2: 1.4264 1.618 proj of the Mar 9 - 31 - May 1 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4248 High Jun 24 and 25 and Tuesday’s high
- PRICE: 1.4198 @ 16:08 BST Jul 3
- SUP 1: 1.4150 Low Jul 2
- SUP 2: 1.4100 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3956 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 1.3837 Low Jun 3
USDCAD remains bullish and short-term weakness is considered corrective - for now. A recent fresh cycle high reinforced the bull theme and the move higher has paved the way for a climb towards 1.4292, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the Feb ’25 - Jan ’26 downleg. Note that the trend remains in overbought territory. A stronger corrective pullback would allow this condition to unwind. On the downside, the first important support lies at 1.4100, the 20-day EMA.
