REFINING: Exxon’s Joliet Refinery to Start Maintenance Early April
Mar-27 15:25
Exxon Mobil’s 250kbpd Joliet refinery is preparing to shut several units starting in the first week of April for a full-plant turnaround, sources told Bloomberg.
- Maintenance will include works on the 99kbpd FCC – a large supplier of gasoline for the Midwest market.
- Works are scheduled to last 6-7 weeks in addition to some days to restore normal operations.
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US: Biden To Visit US-Mexico Border On Thursday
Feb-26 15:15
The New York Times reporting that President Biden will visit Brownsville, Texas on the US-Mexico border on Thursday as the White House seeks to mitigate the fallout from a migration crisis which has escalated into one of the central wedge issues of the 2024 general election.
- Gallup's most recent national survey polled President Biden's approval on immigration at 28% - a low for his presidency and down 7 points since November.
- The Times notes that former President Donald Trump will make a parallel trip to the border on Thursday with a visit to Eagle Pass, Texas, the site of a major junket from Congressional Republicans in January highlighting border policy.
- Biden is currently weighing up a package of executive actions to enhance border security but it is unclear what measures could be upheld as similar executive actions during the Trump Administration were overturned by federal courts. Moreover, any executive action would come without tens of billion of dollars required to beef up border personnel and infrastructure.
- Biden is likely to announce some new measures on Thursday and argue that House Republicans, on the instructions of Trump, torpedoed a comprehensive package of border reforms which could have effectively secured the border.
- Biden pledged in remarks at the White House, after the bipartisan border deal collapsed, to tell voters "every day between now and November" that Trump and his Republican allies in Congress are the "only reason the border is not secure."
STIR: ECB Implied Rates Drift Higher
Feb-26 15:07
We haven't seen any notable headline flow to explain the latest weakness in European STIR markets, with global issuance matters dominating in the wider FI space.
- The Euribor strip is -1.0 to -6.5 through the blues, with the back of the whites/front of the reds under the most pressure.
- ECB implied rates have drifted higher through the day, with 93bps of cuts priced by ECB-dated OIS through the remainder of 2024 (vs 100bps this morning).
- ECB speak continues to push back on the need for imminent rate cuts, with the usually dovish Stournaras continuing to point to June ’24 re: likely timing of the first move.
- This is roughly in line with current market pricing.
- Pricing re: the total of ’24 cuts continues to operate within the recently established range.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Mar-24 | 3.905 | -0.2 |
| Apr-24 | 3.845 | -6.2 |
| Jun-24 | 3.662 | -24.5 |
| Jul-24 | 3.511 | -39.6 |
| Sep-24 | 3.315 | -59.3 |
| Oct-24 | 3.149 | -75.8 |
| Dec-24 | 2.975 | -93.2 |
| Jan-25 | 2.835 | -107.2 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg |
US TSYS: Post-New Home Sales React
Feb-26 15:04
- Treasury futures holding near recent lows after lower than expected New Home Sales (661k vs 684k est, 664k prio); MoM (1.5% vs. 3.0% est, prior down revised to 7.25 from 8.0%).
- Mar'24 10Y currently -1.5 at 109-26.5, 10Y yield 4.2618% +.0138, curves mildly steeper vs. Fri close: 2s10s +.245 at -44.245.
- The trend direction in Treasuries remains down and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. Price has pierced 109-17, 50.0% of the Oct - Dec bull cycle. A clear break of this retracement would strengthen the bearish condition and signal scope for an extension towards 108-19+, the 61.8% Fibonacci level.
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