JAPAN DATA: Export, Imports Above Forecasts, Trade Deficit Widest Since 2023

In post-Tokyo trade on Friday, JGB futures closed weaker, -19 compared to settlement levels.

• Cash bonds were closed on Friday in observance of the Juneteenth holiday.
• TYU6 is dealing at 109-07+, -0-12+ from Thursday's closing levels in today's Asia-Pac session.
• "US stock futures fell and oil climbed on Monday as talks between Washington and Tehran over a peace deal were clouded by a renewed threat from President Donald Trump to strike Iran." – BBG
• Iran said the Strait of Hormuz was shut following ongoing Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon, while President Trump said it remained open. Iran threatened to pull out of talks on Sunday following Trump’s threat to resume strikes if its proxy Hezbollah attacked Israel. However, a US diplomat said that progress was made in Switzerland. Uncertainty over the situation especially for Hormuz remains elevated.
• US-Iran talks in Switzerland were centred on enforcing the ceasefire in southern Lebanon, nuclear issues and clearer messaging regarding the Strait, according to a US diplomat on Bloomberg.
• "China's exports of some critical minerals to Japan remained at low levels in May, extending a downturn amid disputes between the two countries over Taiwan and military capabilities." BBG
• Today, the local calendar will be empty.

Bloomberg Finance LP

The USD/CNH Friday night range was 6.7816 - 6.7968, Asia is currently trading around 6.7850. The pair has done quite a bit of work just below the 6.8000 area as the CNH consolidates its recent gains, but for the moment it has failed to extend lower. The pair has traded heavily considering the broader US Dollar complex has had a healthy bounce. The price does look a little stretched down here though and the pair's inability to build any momentum below 6.78-6.80 would be a little concerning, could it play catch up ? The market remains firmly bullish overall on the Yuan and will most likely continue to use any decent bounce to fade. The first resistance is toward 6.8000 and then the 6.8200-8500 area where I suspect sellers will return looking for the move lower to eventually regain momentum.

• Jeffrey P. Snider on X: “China just hit a record. Not record growth. Not confidence. Not consumer spending. A record decline in household borrowing, and they are pulling back at a pace we have never seen. That breaks the entire playbook. Every time China weakened, the fix was the same. More credit. Property support. Infrastructure. Get the banks lending. But what happens when households do not want the credit and stop spending too?”
• “Chinese households are not acting like people in a healthy economy. They are acting like people preparing for worse to come. China is producing, but not consuming.” https://x.com/JeffSnider_EDU/status/2068353792672997855?s=20
• USD/CNY Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 6.7700($529m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 6.7500($349m May 28 ), 6.7400($7900m June 24), 6.7705($1.24b June 25), 6.8200($1.1b June 24) - BBG
• The USD/CNH Average True Range for the last 10 Trading days: 147 Points
• Data/Event : 1 & 5 -Year Loan Prime Rate

Fig 1 : USD/CNH Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

TYU6 is dealing at 109-07+, -0-12+ from Thursday’s closing levels in today’s Asia-Pac session.

• “US stock futures fell and oil climbed on Monday as talks between Washington and Tehran over a peace deal were clouded by a renewed threat from President Donald Trump to strike Iran.” - BBG
• Cash bonds were closed on Friday in observance of the Juneteenth holiday.
• (Bloomberg) “Saudi Arabia’s holdings of US Treasuries fell in April 2026 to $140.1 billion, declining by about $9.5 billion from a month earlier, according to data from the US Department of Treasury.”
• MNI Techs (TYU6): Key short-term resistance to watch is at 110-00, the 50-day EMA and the May 29 high at 110-00+. A clear break of this hurdle would undermine the bear theme and signal scope for a stronger recovery. This would open 110-14, a Fibonacci retracement point. For now, gains are considered corrective. Initial firm support is 108-25, the Jun 8 low. The bear trigger is 108-08+, May 19 low.

Bloomberg Finance LP