CHINA PRESS: Experts Expect Steady Growth In Q1 Consumer Market
China’s consumer market will grow steadily in Q1 as the government expands trade-in schemes and promotional activities, according to experts interviewed by Yicai, following the State Council's Executive Meeting which focused on boosting residents' income. Guangkai Chief Industry Research Institute predicts retail sales of consumer goods will increase by 5.5% in 2025, with macroeconomic policies prioritising the expansion of domestic demand. Wang Peng, researcher at the Beijing Academy of Social Sciences, said China’s new consumption model will rely on emerging technologies such as 5G, artificial intelligence, and big data to develop personalised consumption experiences applicable to smart homes, wearable technology products, internet medical services, smart cars and e-commerce platforms.
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AUSSIE BONDS: Heavy & At Session Cheaps After Today’s Local Data Dump
ACGBs (YM -15.0 & XM -8.0) have extended morning weakness to be sharply cheaper and at the Sydney session's worst levels.
- The Melbourne Institute Inflation Index rose 0.6% m/m in December versus +0.2% in November. The index rose 2.6% y/y versus +2.9% in November.
- ANZ-Indeed job advertisements rose 0.3% from a month earlier (-12.5% y/y) in December.
- There have been no cash dealings in US tsys in today’s Asia-Pac session with Japan out for a holiday. TYH5 is, however, slightly weaker at 107-11, -0-01+ from NY closing levels.
- Cash ACGBs are 8-14bps cheaper, led by the short end.
- Swap rates are 7-12bps higher, with the 3s10s curve flatter.
- The bills strip has bear-steepened, with pricing -3 to -13.
- RBA-dated OIS pricing is 2-14bps firmer across meetings today. A 25bp rate cut is still more than fully priced for April (105%), with the probability of a February cut at 69% (based on an effective cash rate of 4.34%).
- AOFM Bond issuance will resume this week, with A$800mn of the 3.50% 21 December 2034 bond to be sold on Wednesday and A$700mn of the 2.75% 21 November 2027 bond to be sold on Friday.
US TSY OPTIONS: Option Flow: SFR Fly Sold
- BSFRM6M8 (SFR June26/June27/June28) Fly sold at .03 x6000. Post time 11:26.53 AEST
EQUITIES: Asian Equities Opened Lower Following Strong US Jobs Data On Friday
- Asian equities have opened lower this morning, extending declines after strong US jobs data affirmed the Fed's stance to keep interest rates steady amid lingering inflation. Australian and South Korean shares fell, while Japanese markets were closed. US equity futures edged lower following Friday’s 1.5% drop in the S&P 500.
- Investors are now focused on upcoming US inflation data, including CPI on Wednesday and New York Fed inflation expectations on Monday. December's US nonfarm payrolls showed strong job gains and a lower unemployment rate, prompting some major banks, including Bank of America, to revise rate cut expectations, with some predicting no cuts this year.
- In corporate news, Johnson & Johnson is exploring a bid for Intra-Cellular Therapies, while Bain Capital sweetened its offer for Australia’s Insignia Financial, while Chinese stocks are off to their worst annual start since 2016, with markets awaiting critical trade and money supply data.
